West Indies vs England series

1st Test: Wednesday 4th February, Jamaica

2nd Test: Friday 13th February, Antigua

3rd Test: Thursday 26th February, Barbados

4th Test: Friday 6th March, Trinidad

England’s road to winning the 2005 Ashes began back here in the West Indies with a four-test series that started the impressive run that summer. Do you remember Stephen Harmison in 2004 getting 7-12 at Sabina Park in Jamaica? Well, he might not even play this time.

Anyway, looking at this schedule some things leap out at me. Winning the first Test is vital as the second is on such a featherbed in Antigua that it is likely to be a draw.

That would leave a side 1-0 down with 2 to play so Sabina Park is crucial and benefits tall, hard bowling seamers. If the England selectors decide to omit Harmison then the importance of Stuart Broad’s bowling becomes clear. This is especially the case as fitness worries still dog Freddie Flintoff.

Stats

1st Test: The last five Tests have seen five results. The West Indies could only manage to beat Bangladesh though and lost the other four.

2nd Test: A new ground with only one match played so far – a draw between WI and Aussie. There were a whopping 1341 runs scored in the match.

3rd Test: Last four matches all had clear results. West Indies won one and lost three.

4th Test: The last three Tests all saw results again. West Indies beat the mighty Sri Lanka and lost the other two.

Some of these result stats can be blamed on the West Indies being so poor in recent years but there have clearly been plenty of results. This time though they seem to be slightly resurgent and no one can claim England are settled. As ever so much of how England does relies on whether big Freddie Flintoff is fit. The scans are back but he has to be ready and able to shoulder a huge workload.

Bets

England to win the series at 8/13 is very short. I reckon we can lay that aggressively. They may go one up but that is an almighty short price for a side that has only won once in the Caribbean in recent times. Also a few England players will have eyes on the IPL, the loss in the Stanford 20-20 and a fear for their own places.

Kevin Pietersen: I am cheating here and just buying his runs on the spreads.

What I like about West Indies is they have some fine confident men who are in form. Chris Gayle and Shivnarine Chanderpaul are keys but some of the youngsters have started to display some maturity and willingness to work. They also have a pace attack, albeit one short on height.

These are my long term thoughts and each match will be traded live for us all to enjoy and I will update these bets as the series progresses.

1st Test Update

England won the toss and decide to bat with the spreads at 360-380.

The pitch looks flat and good to bat but I am keen to sell England runs small at 360. That is based on the early hard ball and Ian Bell

being number three. Just as we say that, England have lost their first wicket (Strauss) and Bell is now in. We now need to hold our sell of runs.

Also I am looking to
lay the draw at some juncture as this pitch looks like it will dust up nicely.

Another wicket has just gone with Cook out! Take your profits from the spreads now as Pietersen is the danger man.

1st Test – Day Two

A good start to our trading as England’s last two partnerships shaded a hard day for the visitors.

The pitch is turning a lot and any score approaching 300 is powerful. Our buy of Pietersen’s runs is in clover as he scored 97 but for those – and I did both – who elected to back him on the ton-ups his stupid dismissal had me pulling clumps of hair from my head.

Our draw lay is in fine position as well and we should be looking to add to it as and when it dips. More later but a good start.

4th Test

Andrew Strauss has won the toss and England have elected to bat.

Now they need to make good use of what looks a decent pitch. England have not lost in Barbados since 1989 and this is a good ground for them. Now they need runs!!!

The spreads are 380-400. My belief is anything over 400 is a good chance for a sell.

Thise England team is extraordinary though. Prior is at home due to father duties while Tim Ambrose is in. Ravi Bopara becomes number 6 – his last match he bagged a pair. Is the side strong enough for this match? The doubts are plentiful.

It’s confirmed though that this pitch is a belter. I am now looking to sell small anywhere around 450. That is my opening gambit and is based more on the England line-up than the pitch.

It is a small trade as well as this looks a great pitch for a potential big score.

Final Test Preview

The final Test in this series starts later today in Trinidad and is a must win game for England.

Who will they pick to bowl is one of the key questions. Honestly, unless the pitch is spicy I don’t think it matters one jot. Who will get 20 wickets? A deflated Harmsion? Pedestrian Sidebottom? Exactly.

I will watch for any signs of a lively pitch but my initial move is a back of the draw at 2.32 now. England batting is currently on form and strong and only Fidel Edwards and Graeme Swann look like wicket takers on either side.

Final Comment

As this series draws to a close with two days to go it is time to fully examine how we have fared from the beginning.

Series bets: I wanted a lay of England at 8/13 as it was ‘too short’. Well that is looking handsome. The 1st Test was good as we traded the England runs well – thank you Ian Bell – and also layed the draw superbly for a super match and profit. 2nd Test was a run fest with little action.

The 3rd (scheduled as the 4th Test) saw a disaster sell of England runs but at least I advised small as there was potential of a big score. And finally, the last Test was an excellent early back of draw as I did not believe all the pundits saying the pitch would break up. Well, we got in at 2.32. At present, before start of play today, (Monday) it is at 1.17!

Now I do not know how well you have all done but the stats above suggest you should be handsomely in profit if you have followed the advice. Our final trade was a buy of Pietersen runs around 300. He scored 304 so neither here nor there really.

As for these two days I am taking my profit of the draw back and getting out of the trade in case of any last minute wobbles. I don’t think there will be any but why risk it.

Go on KP!

Our pretty flat position on Pietersen’s series runs has changed dramatically this morning with KP going on a rampage as England seek quick runs. He is past the half-century and still going as I write – all these runs are profit. Yippee!