Weekend Rugby

Some good tips from Fletch here, calling the Scarlets win over the defending champs Munster; Wasps over Leinster; and the Blues over the Chiefs in S14. Less good with the Biarritz v Northampton game, but no one saw that massive upset coming.

Heineken Cup

Llanelli Scarlets v Munster, Friday 7.30pm

What a start to the weekend. Scarlets are hard to beat at home and have Stephen Jones back after an injured wrist that did for the tailend of his Six Nations. But Munster are superb in Europe and were excellent in the group stage. However, no Paul O’Connell is massive, and for that reason and Scarlets home bias at Stradey Park I reckon this will be a home win but quite possibly a damned close one.

I will trade the match on Betfair but if I had to bet and leave it would be on Scarlets at 6/5.

Wasps v Leinster, Saturday 5.45pm

Oh my god. Wasps at home against a wonderfuol Leinster backline although one shorn of superstar Brian O’Driscoll. Does that stop Leinster winning? It goes a damned long way that’s for sure. For that reason I favour Wasps but only if they hold the ball and don’t cough up possession for D’Arcy, Horgan and Dempsey to run.

The market is 8/13 Wasps and 5/4 Leinster so I am backing Wasps to win.

If I am going to trade I will have a seperate position running for trading purposes. Also I think two good defences will make it a tight and close match so I am keen to sell points below 45.

Biarritz v Northampton, Sunday 1.00pm

If the Saints get anything out of this match I will be stunned. Away to a bullish pack and decent backline when the Saints are staring relegation down the throat.

A comfortable win for Biarritz here as Dimitri Yachvili pulls the strings for the French in Spain from scrum-half. 15 points is my maximum buy as Biarritz continue their home domination. And remember they beat Saints twice in the group stage so there is recent form between the pair.

Leicester Tigers v Stade Francais Sunday, 3.00pm

Two of the powerhouses of European rugby prepare to knock ten bales of dung out of each other. This pair have close matches full stop. Stade have won at Welford Road and Leicester held them off 29-22 last time so quite simply I am backing points above 43 to 45.

Also I am trading an even match and laying whenever a side hits 1.6 and trading them back at 1.8 or higher.

This is a momentum match where I believe if past form is anything to go by no one side will dominate on the pitch or the scoreboard so I am setting up to keep taking .2 points on every trade and slowly over the match build a decent profit bank.

When two sides are so even it makes sense and anything else would just be a gut punt WHICH IS WHAT WE TRY AND AVOID.

Super 14

Chiefs v Blues, Saturday 8.35am

Chiefs won for us last week thank you, but it was close – too close with a late penalty sealing it. The Blues are a behemoth pack and will the Chiefs be up to speed for what could be a relentless front end arm wrestle?

They have the backs with Kahui back in the centre being fed by Byron Kelleher at scrum-half and Sivivatu to sear thorugh any gaps but will their admittedly improving pack be up to it?

The second row and line out battles will be crucial and I reckon this is where the Blues with Flavell and Rawlinson are massively dominant.

A forward battle equals a Blues win but if the ball gets thrown about then look for Chiefs runners to trouble and spread the Blues defense. Also, if they do run the ball, the Blues forwards will get knackered.

Just because Chiefs ar 11/4 I am on them although it is small size as we respect Blues and their position at the top of the ladder.