Weekend Review

Punting is a precarious business and one where we are constantly learning and adapting. Indeed, betting exchanges have made this even more important, but there are some basic fundamentals that remain constant, and they should be the base of most of our trades, if not all.

Let us examine the two markets I tipped on for the weekend.

Both won handsomely. That is good, but it is the thinking behind them that is important, so we can understand why we did what we did, and how it benefited us so well.

Australia 25-17 South Africa, Tri-Nations

What we knew before the match:

1. SA had a weak team with 20 top players not there.
2. Aussie were cock-a-hoop about beating the All Blacks the week before.
3. Plenty of Aussie emotion as Gregan and Larkham played last home Test matches.
4. For months Aussie have started matches slowly – often coming from behind to win.

The chances were Australia would win, and win well which is why the price to back was a lowly 1.21ish.

Fair enough, but considering the above there was a good chance that SA would start well, full of fury and pent -up frustration at the lambasting they had received in the week before by the Aussie press. Also they had some talented players that had excelled in the Super 14.

SA went 7-0 up on a poor Aussie mistake, and then 14-0 on a Brendon Paulse interception, as Australian complacency threw the ball wide early and loosely.

That start saw the prices were out to 2.5, so anytime from the first score was ideal to get out of the bet.

The question then was when and for how much to back Australia who after 25 minutes showed some reorganisation. 17-0 after another SA penalty can easily be 17-10 in the blink of an eye and it was.

The second half was one way traffic for the result, Aus winning 25-17.

However the important part for us was knowing 1.21 was too short and was opposable. But only as a TRADE. The key thing was that we got a price where the potential upside was huge and the downside small, which is the golden rule for any trade we make.

England v West Indies, WI win by 93 runs, ODI

What we knew before the match:

1. West Indies have wicket taking bowlers.
2. England have two centurions in the side, KP and Collinwood and both are out of form.
3. England field appallingly
4. England were experimenting on strategies with no confirmed plan.
5. Chanderpaul would be the best player on the pitch and Samuels, Morton, Bravo, and Dwayne Smith the best short over hitters.
6. England rarely bowl sides out in one day matches.

This one day international should have been an evens starting price, if not WI slight favourites but this ridiculous weight of money kept England down at 1.58. That was an immediate lay and they traded between there and 1.75 for the first two hours. A nice trade but as West Indies batted well it became a great lay as there was so much pressure on a poor England batting line-up to score in excess of 250.

The market had 270 as an evens price at the break – at least 20 runs too many. Once it was 290 to win, the match was gone as West Indies have a plan of taking wickets throughout an innings and in Powell, Fidel and Rampaul usually get 4 in the first 25 overs.

The fact is we layed at a price where the downisde was small and the possible upside great. The fact that West Indies were so much better than us was a bonus.

IT WAS PATRIOTISM THAT MADE ENGLAND SO SHORT AND WE USED THAT TO GET A DAMNED GOOD PRICE!