UFC 95: Sanchez vs Stevenson

I was at the o2 Arena this weekend to witness UFC 95 and, despite the lack of star power, it was one of the most exciting cards of fighting that I have seen in quite some time.

Ten fights and only two decisions summed up a night that was full of spectacular KOs from the likes of underdog Paulo Thiago and Nate Marquardt alongside a stunning submission from jiu-jitsu wizard Demian Maia.

It also didn’t hurt that four of our five tips came in. If it wasn’t for Josh Koscheck taking a lucky shot on the chin from Thiago we would have been looking at a perfect evening. Still, some good profits in our latest endeavour into the Octagon. Bring on UFC 96!

This weekend the Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the UK and the 02 Arena for another full night of mixed martial arts that will be televised live on Setanta Sports.

The card is headlined by Diego ‘Nightmare’ Sanchez making his lightweight debut against perennial contender Joe ‘Daddy’ Stevenson. It’s not exactly a blockbuster main event, especially in the aftermath of January’s Georges St. Pierre vs. BJ Penn superfight, but what we do have at UFC 95 is a card full of intriguing match-ups with title implications.

Betting on the UFC is often a frustrating experience due to the abnormal amount of upsets compared to a similar sport such as boxing. However, there are definite edges that we can still exploit this weekend for some tidy profits. Here’s your betting breakdown for the five main card bouts.

Diego Sanchez vs Joe Stevenson

After losing two close decisions to Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch, Diego Sanchez has chosen this time to move down in weight to the lightweight division. His whole UFC career has been characterised by tremendous conditioning and submission skills that should only be more dominant now that he is no longer going to be competing against ginormous welterweights inside the Octagon.

Joe Stevenson’s career has also taken a nosedive since being given a breakthrough main event against BJ Penn for the vacant lightweight title in January 2008. Penn gave him a real thrashing that night in Newcastle, opening up a nasty head wound before easily submitting Stevenson with a rear naked choke. Joe ‘Daddy’ has never looked the same since with his formerly impressive wrestling game becoming strangely ineffective. His last fight versus number one contender Kenny Florian was another one-sided battering with Florian forcing the tap out early on.

These are two fighters at a crossroads in their career and both need a win desperately; Stevenson to stay in the title picture and Sanchez to springboard to the top of it. For me, there is only one winner here and that is Diego Sanchez. He is more effective in the stand-up game than his opponent and a good enough wrestler to neutralise his opponent on the ground while looking for a submission. Expect Stevenson to tap out again or lose a unanimous decision.

Unfortunately, the markets are pretty strongly with Sanchez on this one but, really, the only hope that Stevenson has in this match is to get a lucky KO. However, he has never shown any signs that he possesses knockout power and due to his suspect conditioning, you have to bet the house on Sanchez here.

3pts Back Sanchez @ 1.35 Betfair.com

Dan Hardy vs Rory Markham

Rooster-haired Dan Hardy has been labelled as a hot prospect on the UK MMA scene for many years now but, like his opponent Markham, is a bit of an unknown quantity in the UFC. His sole bout so far was a split decision win versus the game Akihiro Gono in London last year. He has an excellent refined stand-up game that utilises kicks very well.

What the UK fan favourite needs to avoid is turning this into a knockdown drag-out affair with the hard-hitting Rory Markham. The American scored am impressive KO in his last UFC fight but being placed opposite Hardy is an altogether tougher measure.

Hardy’s reach advantage and superior skill level should see him through a close decision as long as he can avoid getting caught in the pocket with a big right-hand. At 1.72 to win on Betfair, there is definitely value here in backing the Brit in a fight that could well be the most exciting of the night.

2pts Back Hardy @ 1.72 Betfair.com

Nate Marquardt vs Wilson Gouveia

Nate Marquardt is a member of Greg Jackson’s fabled team that includes UFC champions Rashad Evans and Georges St. Pierre and seemingly has a perfect strategy for every single fight. Although he has already failed at his first attempt to wrest Anderson Silva away from the middleweight title, Marquardt is quite simply one of the best all-round fighters in the division. Stamina, striking, submission skills and wrestling – he has it all.

The unpredictable Wilson Gouveia should be a stepping stone as Marquardt charges towards another clash with Silva. Though he has heavy hands, always giving him a chance, Gouveia has suffered from suspect cardio his entire career. Look for a close first round before Marquardt gets the KO late in the third. It would be a huge shock if Gouveia wins this one.

2pts Back Marquardt @ 1.33 Betfair.com

Demian Maia vs Chael Sonnen

This should be one of the more exciting bouts on the main card as Demian Maia’s top-notch Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu takes on the talented wrestler Chael Sonnen. Maia was one of the breakthrough stars of the UFC in 2008 with four straight submission victories to help keep his perfect 9-0 record intact. If he wins here there will be many people putting him forward as the natural contender to Anderson Silva’s middleweight crown.

Sonnen, on the other hand, is more experienced with a 21-9 record and had recently been plying his trade in the UFC’s sister organisation WEC. Sonnen traded victories with the former middleweight standout Paulo Filho (before personal issues have derailed his career) leading up to his UFC return this weekend.

Sonnen is a talented and durable fighter but the intangible here is that his wrestling strengths play right into the hands of his slick opponent. If Sonnen looks to take the fight to the ground, and he lacks a vicious striking game, then he will likely become another submission victim of the Brazillian. Unfortunately, the bookies agree with us and have Maia as a big favourite at a short 1.24 to win.

Those are bad odds in the UFC but Maia is an incredible prospect and worth backing nonetheless.

1pt Back Demian Maia @ 1.24 Betfair.com

Josh Koscheck vs Paolo Thiago

The UFC like to claim that, unlike boxing, they don’t simply feed opponents to their marketable stars but if this isn’t a perfect example of skewed matchmaking then I don’t know what is. The unknown Thiago is in way over his head here against a resurgent Koscheck.

The last outing for Koscheck ended in a highlight-reel KO of Yoshiyuki Yoshida and it would be a huge shock if the same thing doesn’t happen again at UFC 95. Re-mortgage the house and stick it all on ‘Kos’.

5pts Back Josh Koscheck @ 1.17

You can catch UFC 95 live on Setanta Sports from 8pm on Saturday 21st February