Midweek football action sees the UEFA Cup return, and Tom finds value in Germany and Turkey
100% from Tom, whose knowledge of the less well known European teams pays dividends.
The return of the UEFA Cup and I for one am ecstatic. Teams priced up based on reputation and the supposed strength of their league make for juicy odds across the continent as odds compilers get it wrong time after time.
Everton, Spurs and Bolton remain in the competition at the last 32 stage but the bookies know all about them and it is nearly always best to look elsewhere for the value. So it’s off to Germany and Turkey for the two best bets on Tuesday and while I want to be with one Bundesliga side, I am readily opposing another.
Werder Bremen are perennial Champions League contestants but they came unstuck in Real Madrid’s group this season. That may not have been such a bad thing however as while they faced no realistic chance of glory in Europe’s elite competition, I think they can go all the way in the UEFA Cup.
Terrific home form has always been Bremen’s strength and it is no different this term with eight victories from ten home domestic fixtures. Their opponents on Tuesday are Braga and while the German’s were contesting a 1-1 draw with Bayern Munich on the weekend, the Portuguese outfit drew by the same score at lowly Amadora.
With the exception of the top sides, the Portuguese league has never been that hot and it certainly lacks strength in depth. Braga, although unbeaten in their group games, were in a weak pool with Bolton and one win was enough to see them qualify in second place. They scored just five goals in four matches but their overall away form is poor and the 1.44 about a home win must be snapped up. Bremen are as short as 1.33 so the price with Sky Bet looks wrong.
While Werder Bremen are a team to be relied upon at the Weserstadion, I really cannot have their Bundesliga compatriots Bayer Leverkusen on their trip to Hell. An away fixture in Turkey is always one to avoid and with Galatasaray sitting top of the Turkish league, it really is a draw that Leverkusen could have done without.
Still in the title hunt in Germany, Leverkusen do well on their travels but the Turks are unbeaten at home all season. In a two legged tie its paramount not get beaten in the first leg, especially at home, and at just 3.00 the Germans are a lay. They are certainly the better team, but avoiding defeat will be their priority and having Galatasaray and the draw on our side looks very decent business indeed.