Trading Up

	Betting-wise, I reckon the most important factor is the location of the World Cup

Thank Freddie the cricket season has ended! I’ve felt hugely disappointed the last few months with Betfair’s cricket coverage. Too many mistakes have been made, and for the first time I’ve felt their willingness to listen to customers has been weak. Despite repeatedly asking them whether bets stood or were voided in twenty20 matches which are decided on a bowl-off, I was refused any straight answer. When you bet thousands of pounds per match, it’s good to know how it will be settled.

Betfair certainly didn’t know, as demonstrated by the inevitable bowl-off. They ran an inrunning market and the operators themselves had no idea if the result would stand or not (it didn’t, in the end). This came on top of not only a dreadfully short-sighted rule where tied matches are void (to cater to arbers from the Asian markets), but also another recent fiasco, where handicap markets on the England vs Australia fifth Ashes test were not settled according to the market rules. A number of their customers have taken Betfair to IBAS, who may well ask Betfair to pay out a refund.

While their sponsorship of the Ashes will have enhanced their public image, I can’t help but feel that a little more thought and TLC towards both their cricket markets and their customers is vital for the exchange marketplace leader.

So solid crew

At least Betfair’s footie markets are always solid. In fact the prices in a recent Carling Cup match between Manchester City and Doncaster Rovers were almost too good to be true.

The match finished 1-1 after extra time, and the prices were absolutely astonishing. On Betfair’s ‘To Qualify’ market (betting on who would win the penalty shoot-out) I was stunned that Man City were trading at 4/6 to win, and promptly laid about £2,500, thinking I had a great bet. Sure, Manchester City are a Premiership team, but last time I checked they didn’t have a group of world-class clinical strikers who can dispatch penalties with ease. Away from home, with five kicks per side, I’d have it at virtually evens the pair to qualify. In the next few minutes before kick-off though, the price collapsed further to almost 2/1 on. Very silly. Luckily for me, Doncaster scored all their first three penalties, and City missed all three of theirs. A pro gambler will always need value in their betting, and I’d advise Edgers that when we have a situation again where a more highprofi le team is heavy odds-on to win a penalty shoot-out, the value will be had by laying them.

Location, location, location

I’ve no doubt that next summer’s World Cup in Germany will provide a feast of entertainment for sports fans and punters alike.

Betting-wise, however, I reckon the most important factor is the location of the World Cup. All eight held outside Europe have resulted in a non-European winner, but eight out of the nine European World Cups have produced a European winner. Add the fact that six out of 17 World Cups have been won by the host nation, and despite their poor form, Germany at 10/1 on Betfair look well worth backing. The home nation is always top-seeded, and will have both a relatively easy group and the likelihood of avoiding Brazil until the final. By laying all the non- European teams on Betfair at current odds, you can get odds of slightly above 4/6 that we have another European winner, which looks juicy according to the history books… but may not be so tempting given how many South American players are based in Europe these days, and are already acclimatised to the conditions.

Finally, I just want to thank Edgers and Betfair forumites alike for all their feedback on my inaugural column last month. Please keep your mails coming to eddy@djsunset.com – I’ll try my best to answer every one individually.