Asian handicaps, spread betting and keeping records – Tony Cascarino offers expert advice for those who want to get ahead in their football betting.
People often ask me what the secrets to good football betting are. There’s no one rule, but there are good practices that every punter should follow. One of the key factors is to vary your bets and use the range of formats available. In other words, don’t simply stick to fixed-odds markets. You need to make the most of Asian handicaps and spread-betting markets to really find value.
Take the Premiership match between Birmingham City and Manchester United last month. I didn’t fancy the fixed-odds prices of 5/2 about Birmingham City and 4/5 about Manchester United. But I looked at the Asian handicap prices and instantly found better value. The price on Birmingham to win with a goal head start was smaller, at around evens, but gave you the alternative of winning if Birmingham won or drew. The handicap bet paid off when the game finished level at 0-0.
That’s just one example of what is a very attractive betting medium. It surprises me how many people are still unfamiliar with this and other forms of betting. It’s very basic. A half-goal head-start means if the team with the head-start draws, you win the bet because they beat the handicap. Sometimes a team will be given a 0.75 goal head start. It means the same thing – if they draw, you win.
People say spread betting is complicated as well, but punters just need educating. Take the first goal market. It you fancy a goal to be scored early in the game, you sell the spread at, for example, 39-42 minutes and you win your stake multiplied by the difference between the minute the goal is scored and the lower figure of the spread. It’s simple.
There’s a lot of value to be had in spread betting. In football in particular, the market makers often get the prices wrong. If you’re alert to their faults and weaknesses you can make big money. But you have to be careful because when you lose it hurts. Even more than football, there are other sports, like cricket and snooker, where high scores means losing bets can be very painful indeed. You only need two or three bets to go down to lose big money. For that reason, your staking plan is all-important, to make sure a losing spread bet doesn’t completely wipe out your betting bank.
I like to juggle between different markets and I’ll use all forms of betting to find an advantage. I pick up the early editions of the papers and jump on early prices. In everything I do I’m looking for the value.
Another tip is to stick to one or two matches each weekend. Focus on a few games rather than betting on games you don’t have the time or background knowledge to bet on with real confidence. Research every aspect of the games you bet on – look at who is injured, who is likely to get selected, what the two teams’ form is like going into the matches.
Also advisable is to avoid at all costs doubles and trebles. They are so hard to get right. I was reminded of just that when placing a treble on the World Cup qualifiers last month. I correctly tipped Norway to beat Scotland and Ireland to beat France with a +1 goal head start on the Asian handicaps, and had Croatia to beat Bulgaria. I went to bed when Croatia were cruising 2-0 up, only to wake up and find Bulgaria had pulled it back to draw 2-2. What a nightmare!
I suffered a worse stroke of fate in the mid-1980s when a ten-fold bet of mine nearly came off. I was nine up when Everton faced Coventry City in the final game. I’d backed Everton and they were leading 1-0. Then Neville Southall – Everton goalkeeper at the time – conceded the most freakish goal. 1-1, game over and I’d lost my bet. It was sickening.
My bookmaker, who was independent, told me: ‘Thank God that bet didn’t come off, otherwise you’d have shut me down.’
Lucky bookies
Accumulators are a disaster because they’re really difficult to get right. You can try all season and only have one or two come off, which costs you money in the long run.
Also, it’s very rare to find the best price for three or four different matches with a single firm, meaning you end up having to accept worse value. Better to put £300 on one match that you’re confident about than £100 on a treble. It amazes me the number of people that don’t shop around. I have a pal who is very superstitious. If he wins a football bet with Ladbrokes, he sticks with Ladbrokes. He thinks if he won with them last time, they will somehow bring him luck next time.
It’s crazy. But there are plenty of football bettors out there who are equally daft. You get punters who put down their money at the first bookie they comes across, when a better price is available five minutes down the road.
Keeping track of your betting is hard work, but it’s worth it. I’ve got ten different accounts so I can place the best-value bets. That’s why I keep a record of everything so I know exactly what my winnings (and losses) are. After all, why do it unless we can enjoy the good times, eh?
