Football’s big fish land most of the attention, but betting on the lower leagues is a great route to profit, says Tony Cascarino – you just need to do some research.
The biggest football bet I’ve ever placed was hardly on the most glamorous of fixtures. It came in November 2002, when I put £7,000 on Luton Town to beat Guiseley in the FA Cup first round.
The odds on Luton were 1/ 7. Now, I know one of the golden rules of betting is never to place a wager unless the price is too generous – but even at 1/ 7 it was big. I reckoned Luton were more 1/20 shots. They were doing okay, while Guiseley were rooted to the bottom of Unibond Division Two. I did my homework and worked out it was worth putting £7,000 on to nick a grand.
During the match I was at the cinema with my kids at Bluewater shopping centre. I ducked out of Lord of the Rings at half-time to check the score. We were in a big precinct. I remember peering through the window of a TV shop for a score update. My kids must have been wondering: ‘What the hell’s he up to?’
Fortunately for me, Luton were already 3-0 up at half-time. I munched my popcorn in peace in the second half. They ran out 4-0 winners and I collected my £1,000.
That’s what betting on lower league football is all about. You can find mistakes and beat the bookies. I used to do it all the time. Even while putting this column together I found another bet on Luton: they were 6/5 to beat Stockport County away in a League One game. Luton were unbeaten and sitting several points clear at the top of the table, while Stockport were second from bottom and on a winless run of five matches. The odds-against price on Luton was amazing. To prove the point, they won the match 3-1.
Such bets are commonplace in the lower divisions. The bookmakers fail to devote proper time to researching lower division teams. They don’t need to, given they take so much money on the Premiership and Euro competitions. It gives shrewder punters the opportunity to make money. Arsenal will often be 1/2 away from home when they’re top of the Premiership, but a similarly placed team in League One or Two will be 5/6.
Splash the cash for promotion
It’s a slight advantage, but it’s all you’re looking for. I know a few serious punters who concentrate their bets on the lower leagues. These days the internet is the best way to do research. Local newspaper websites are valuable resources. For information about Gillingham, visit the Kent Messenger site, for Preston North End, visit the Lancashire Evening Post site and so forth. You can find out so much about team news, injuries and the like before every game. The bookies don’t have the time. It gives you an edge.
There are also certain factors dictating which teams do well and which struggle in the lower leagues. Money is perhaps even more important in the lower leagues than in the Premiership, allowing teams to have bigger squads. It’s spent on wages rather than transfer fees. With financial backing a club can sail through the divisions. Rushden and Diamonds moved up quickly from non-league thanks to attracting better players, while Cardiff City spent a lot of money and reaped the rewards. Look at Wigan Athletic – for a second season running they are challenging for promotion to the Premiership, thanks to money poured in by multimillionaire owner, Dave Whelan.
Also, as a manager in the lower leagues you cannot afford to fall out with too many players, because you don’t have any depth to your squad. You can’t exactly say: ‘He’s a pain in the arse, I’ll kick him out for a few weeks.’ If you do that, you end up with 14 or 15 first-team players. You have to keep everybody happy, so clubs have more of a family atmosphere. Everybody pulls together because they cannot afford not to.
It also means players have to play with injuries. If you know a player is carrying a knock, you can beat the bookies. It only takes a few injuries to bring a winning run to an end – and how would the bookies know about it? Again, they don’t have the time or resources to check up on such facts.
So who do I fancy this season? It’s back to Luton again. Manager Mike Newell is doing a tremendous job and looks like he could be taking them places. They’re my bet for promotion from League One
Another team I had expected to do well was Sheffield Wednesday. They changed their whole team over the summer and started well, being comfortably in mid-table in September. Then they sacked manager Chris Turner. Will the new manager fancy the players brought in over the summer? It’s hard to say, but if they get a few back-to-back wins I still think they can have a say.
I know from my playing days it’s a tough life in the lower divisions. All the lads I played with at Gillingham are working in other jobs now, and they’re probably earning a fair bit more money as well.
Lower league players get the pay of an insurance salesman, but no more than that. They’ll be scraping a living and trying to save a few coppers – perhaps that’s why they all like a bet.
