Don’t get carried away with your betting when your club makes a big, new signing, says Tony Cascarino – make sure you know why the player is joining and what the manager has in mind for him first.
At this time of year, Premiership fans are wildly optimistic about their teams’ chances of success in the new season. The reason? Those big-money transfer deals, of course.
Few things quicken the heart of a football fan like a major signing. You know the routine – the player, holding aloft new shirt, pledges he will do everything he can to bring silverware to the club and supporters salivate at the prospect of their side finally realising its potential.
But transfers don’t always have a happy ending. For ante-post punters having a flutter on the new season, working out which new signings will work out and which will be flops can be the difference between winnings and losses.
The signings most likely to fail are those who, in my view, switch clubs just for the money. There’s nothing wrong with improving your salary, of course, but those players who move only for extra cash are less likely to succeed.
If you want a few pointers as to who will do well, look out for the players who actually ask a few questions about their new clubs. How does the manager plan to use me? Are his tactics suited to my game? What are the club’s targets for next season? These are the players more likely to make a success of a big move as they’re actually interested in their future prospects on the pitch as well as off it.
The problem is that English clubs frown on any level of interrogation from a potential signing. I recently heard a story about a current Premiership manager – he’s a candidate to replace Sven Goran Eriksson as England boss – who was looking to sign a player and the player in question asked him, ‘Would you leave the club if you were offered the England job?’ The manager responded by telling the player he had no right to be asking such questions, and the deal was promptly called off.
You may say the player was too direct, but to my mind, the player was showing exactly the right professional attitude. He was just doing his research – and who could blame him for that?
Things move quickly in football. I remember when I joined Aston Villa in 1990 I looked at the team photo on the wall and thought, ‘Hang on, half that team is not here any more.’ Transfers are great for the ego but they are a nightmare if you join a team that doesn’t play to your strengths.
I learned that the hard way. Graham Taylor signed me at Villa and I was really looking forward to playing for him. Then, shortly afterwards, he left to become England boss and, lo and behold, Doctor Josef Venglos took over at Villa Park. He introduced a different style of play which didn’t suit me one bit and my career hit the skids.
It just typifies how quickly things can change. Look at Chelsea – this time last year, Claudio Ranieri was making all the signings, now Jose Mourinho has the key to Roman Abramovich’s riches. What will Mourinho think of Ranieri’s expensive buys, such as Adrian Mutu and Hernan Crespo? There will be plenty of reckoning done at Chelsea and it could hamper their chances of success.
Another factor to bear in mind is the after-effects of the Euro 2004 finals. Motivating yourself for pre-season training after a successful tournament can be diffi cult. One minute you’re playing in front of an audience of millions, the next you’re training in Aberystwyth and trudging up and down sand dunes.
Players who go to major tournaments get an extra couple of weeks’ holiday – I found myself a little bit behind the rest of the lads when I played at the World Cup finals in 1990. Imagine being Wayne Rooney coming back from the European Championship. After being hailed as the greatest young footballer in Europe and possibly the world, he has to get back into pre-season training. That takes a major adjustment physically and mentally. Some of the French players struggled to get into their stride after winning the World Cup in 1998. Any Premiership-based players who did well at Euro 2004 may have similar problems.
Finally, a couple of signings I really like are the Argentine centre-back, Gabriel Heinze and Alan Smith, both picked up by Manchester United early in the close season. Heinze, who cost £6 million from Paris Saint- Germain, is a very British type of player who will give United more physical strength at the back. Smith is an aggressive player who will give United more power up front.
Sir Alex Ferguson knew Arsenal were a much more physical team than United last season, with bigger, stronger players. He knew United needed greater presence on the pitch. His signings show United are determined to claw back the advantage. Back both Heinze and Smith to do well next season.
