During the festive period football matches are often priced up early, giving punters an opportunity to steal value, as Tony Cascarino explains.
When you’re a footballer, Christmas is a pain in the arse. You have to play four games in ten days when all your mates are out having a drink and enjoying themselves. What a nightmare. For me, it was one of the most difficult parts of the job.
I had to train on Christmas Day, then home for dinner but stay in a hotel on Christmas night. What kind of a life is that? I was so envious of my friends. Then it all changed when I moved to play in France in 1994. Over there, footballers have ‘la treve’ – a fortnight’s holiday over Christmas and New Year. It was absolutely fantastic.
Since retiring, I adore Christmas. It also means more time to focus on football betting. For punters, the festive period can be a very profitable time because bookies price up games in batches of two. They’ll do the coupons for Boxing Day and 28 December games, and then New Year’s Day and 3 January fixtures.
Get in early
This gives you a real advantage, because you can effectively bet using out-of-date prices – watch the action on Boxing Day and then bet on 28 December fixtures. This is the one time of year that you’ll be able to beat the bookies because they’ve priced up games early.
For example, Wigan Athletic are heavily reliant on their two strikers, Jason Roberts and Nathan Ellington, who have scored 21 goals between them this season, helping Wigan set the pace at the top of the Championship. But if both or either are injured on Boxing Day against Derby County, then back Burnley to get at least a point against Wigan on 28 December. The Burnley game will have been priced up before Wigan’s match against Derby, so you are getting a top-value bet.
Similar examples will occur all over the country, in every division. The advantages may be tiny, and the value bets few and far between, but it is worth doing your homework and spotting the ricks. The bookies don’t get it wrong often but they’ll make more mistakes than normal at this time of year.
Too much is made of fatigue these days. Don’t bet against a team just because you think they’ll be tired. You would be amazed how quickly footballers recover. I remember one of the best games I ever played was barely 36 hours after a Boxing Day game and I felt absolutely fantastic! You get into a rhythm pretty quickly. During the festive period you feel like one of those endurance runners, completing back-to-back marathons across the desert. Just when you think you’re on your last legs, you fight on.
However, a lot of players will be ruled out by muscle injuries and that’s where you get an advantage. In the lower leagues, players must play out of position because team-mates are injured. You can nick value in the first goalscorer markets when a midfielder plays up front.
Again, the coupons are usually printed in advance so they don’t take account of the absences that occur when teams play several games in a short space of time. I cashed in like that once – I backed David Hopkin, an old Chelsea team-mate of mine, when I knew he’d be playing up front instead of midfield because of an injury crisis.
It’s also a good idea to reassess your long-term bets at this time of year. The January transfer window means teams will be spending money and improving their chances of promotion or winning titles. The key is to get your bets on before money is spent.
Take West Ham United – they will almost certainly spend money in their fight to get back into the Premiership, so read the papers and, when they are preparing a bid, get your money on. I saw a 2/1 price for Luton Town to win League One when they were seven points clear recently. If the chairman has made it clear they will go out and spend money in January, then you should bet while the value is still there.
Spending power
The Premiership, on the other hand, is more difficult to call, not least because many teams have money and there is more spin in the press during January. Remember how Arsenal had no money to spend last year? A few days later they went out and bought Jose Antonio Reyes for £20 million. So, while Manchester United claim they have no money to spend, don’t be surprised if they go out and buy somebody.
Chelsea can buy whoever they need, of course, but one of their best signings will be a guy already at the club. Step forward Didier Drogba – he arrived for £24 million last summer, but was injured in October and has barely had a chance to show what he can do.
However, that will turn out to be a big advantage for Chelsea in the long run. He will come back fresher and stronger, and be absolutely flying when he returns. He’s a fantastic striker and is definitely worth backing to score goals in the second half of the season.
