Superbowl. Poker Player

It's the biggest occasion on the US sporting calendar and Fletch was in the money

It meant staying up late on a Sunday night, but Fletch’s trading strategy paid off nicely, with the Bears scoring off the first play of the game, and the Colts not really getting going till the second half. The Colts went out to 2.04 and that would’ve been the point to trade.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS vs CHICAGO BEARS

TEAMS ANALYSIS:

COLTS: Peyton Manning and his gun receivers are the key here becasue if he hits them – and he has eight to aim at – then there is no way they lose this football game. But to hit them he needs time and to get set in the pocket and that is where the Bears defense can cause problems.

During the season they have sat back and covered the secondary to great effect but also rushed the passer and made interceptions and fumbles. Manning must cope with them. But if you want confirmation of each side’s strength then look at their Pro Bowl selections.

Bears 8 – 6 from defense or special teams
Colts 5 – all from offense

Men to watch for Colts are the obvious:
Marvin Harrison – a go to man with good touchdown record Reggie Wayne Dallas Clark Bryan Fletcher and whoever runs the ball absolutely must make some yards and keep Bears honest – I don’t think that will happen though.

BEARS: For them it is actually the defense that is their most effective weapon. Not only do they pressure the oppo, ensure great field position and hassle the QB’s, they also score points themselves from turnovers.

They were ranked 5th at season end but that was so low due to a stuttering final few weeks. Since then in the play-offs they have been back to their miserable mean best.

However their offense must contribute something and that means Rex Grossman working the ball in short field to angled runs by Desmond Clark, Muhsin Mohammad (a key player) and Bernie Berrian.

The running game is vital as Grossmanm will throw short on timed outs so Cedric Benson and Thomas jones must get near 100 yards if not more. The Colts can struglle against the run so this aspect of the match will be fascinating.

Betting

Now for the bets. The Colts are 1.4 on betfair and that is too low. I am prepared to stick my neck out straight away before the off and lay them in some size.

They have started slowly for most of the year and trhe Bears are a pumped defense and I reckon this game could still be close at half-time.

If so then the Colts will have moved to at least 1.7 if not more so that is my main punt. Of course I am trading it but that is a firm start point.

For the novelty and spread markets I am less inclined to play in a final. People like them but I am staying up through the night to watch and therefore want to make some decent profit to make it worthwhile.

I will sell total points small at 47 though. Hope for a dull first quarter and then take some profit.