Successful Golf Spread Betting

	Picking out a player you think will win the event is not necessarily your best route to profit

It’s 9pm on a Sunday evening and you have a single fixed-odds bet running on Fred Funk in the latest PGA Tour event. The 49-year-old American currently sits in 50th place, 12 shots behind the leader with four holes to play.

Your bet is effectively dead. Imagine, though, if you’d had a spread bet on his finishing position. In that case your bet would be well and truly alive. Picture the scenario – before the event, you sold Fred Funk at 38. If he finishes 50th you end up a loser. But if he shoots a couple of birdies over the final four holes, your bet may turn into a winner. Either way, you are still watching, gripped by the action.

Welcome to the world of the spreads. Spread betting is perfect for those who like to bet using the laws of probability. It enables you to ‘buy’ and ‘sell’ bets depending how well or badly you think a player will do. Unlike fixed-odds betting, how much you win or lose is unknown when you strike the bet – it all depends how well or badly the player does.

The ‘finishing position’ market, described in the example above, is just one of many spread markets on golf. Before a tournament begins, every player is given a spread based on where the bookies think they may finish – for example, the spread for Tiger Woods may be 12-15. If you sell, you are effectively betting on Woods finishing higher than 12th. If you buy, you are betting on him finishing lower than 15th. You choose your stake and you win or lose your stake for every position you are right (or wrong). If Woods finishes second and you sold at 12, you win ten times your stake. If, however, he finishes 20th, you lose eight times your stake – luckily, most bookies offer a cut-off point at 50.

When you spread bet in golf, the first rule to learn is that picking out a player you think will win the event is not necessarily your best route to profit. Prices can reflect the chances of a player winning, but some players perform consistently well week to week without ever taking home the trophy. Players such as Scott Verplank, Jay Haas, David Howell and even Darren Clarke have a win record that is poor considering their standing in the game. However, they deservedly have good reputations because they are in contention week in, week out. That’s where you can really find value from spread betting.

Take Nick O’Hern, for example. There are punters out there who will religiously back O’Hern every time he enters a tournament – and rightly so. His stats are superb in almost every department, and he regularly contends for victory. Yet how many trophies has he won? None that matter. By Sunday evening O’Hern usually comes up short, which in a win bet is all or nothing. In a spread bet on a 72-hole match bet or finishing position, it’s a different story.

The law of being average

O’Hern will regularly get priced up around 27-30 on finishing positions. The figure will fluctuate based on the strength of the event or O’Hern’s current form. But 27-30 is a fair average. Now let’s step away from his dismal win rate and consider what he does in his events. On the European Tour in the last three years, Nick has stepped up to the first tee 46 times. He has a 33% strike rate on top-ten finishing position, his top-25 record is 61%, and he misses only one in five cuts. Spread punters backing him at an average 27 week in, week out, win over six in ten times.

This is where spread betting can be so profitable. For every punter backing him to win, letting the bet run and losing every single time, there are spread punters out there who know that one in every three times they back O’Hern on finishing positions they will bank an average of nearly 20 times their stake, and only lose that amount one in five. You don’t need to be a mathematician to see why O’Hern is a popular choice for those who spread bet.

Another angle that you can use to win on the spreads at golf is to not follow the masses. Some golfers become extremely popular at certain events because of what they have done in the past and the expectation that the well-known tipsters out there will have them in their list of three or four players to back. Examples that can be given are Woods at Bay Hill, where he has won so many times in the last few years, Ernie Els in the Heineken Classic in Melbourne and Phil Mickelson at Augusta – he finally won the US Masters in 2004 having been so close virtually every year.

Make like a superfan

The spread firms know that no matter what price they put up, people will want to back that player. So why would they offer 16-19 on finishing positions when experience tells them that if they offer 13-16 it will still be taken? For every ten punters that take the 13 to support, there will probably be only one that will take the 16 to oppose. It is hardly in the spread firms’ best interests for those ten punters to win more often than the guy who dared to be different.

So how do you become the one solitary punter rather than the ten who have all backed the same outcome? It’s not as straightforward as always opposing popular players. Instead, look for situations where everyone seems to be backing the same player and swim against the tide. Take a note of prices when they are first issued. If a firm starts to change a price through weight of money in one direction then ask yourself a question – was the spread firm wrong to start with or is the money wrong? If you decide the original price was right and now you can get on in the opposite direction at lower, do it.

Another thing you can do is to specialise on a few players. Find out what events they like, if they have a website or injuries – glean any info that might give you the edge on a forthcoming event. The firms must price up over 30 players; you can specialise on one. If you do that, you have always got a chance of making money.