South Africa vs Australia

On Thursday morning it all starts again but this time a South Africa win secures the ICC Test Championship that Australia have held for years.

It is a lot harder to win when you are not the underdog though and this is a real challenge for this talented South African side. Can they do it? Yes – if they are mentally prepared to.

South Africa

They have dropped Ashwell Prince because of the success of JP Duminy which means they have real strength in depth. Dale Steyn, Morne Morkel, Jacques Kallis and Makhaya Ntini are the seamers and in Tsotsobe there is back up.

Basically they are the squad that won in Aussie and with Graeme Smith back as captain they are strong.

Australia

It had to happen but there is a new emergence in Aussie cricket with names like Hughes, Siddell and MacDonald coming to the fore.

The Aussies will have to do without Matthew Hayden, Brett Lee is struggling and Michael Clarke also with a bad back.

So what do we do?

Simple.

The series in Oz was a lot closer than it looked on paper and Australia were only a couple of timely wickets or spells away from winning. They are not a bad side but people have to remember they are not the dominant force of years gone by.

Punts

Australia need a big series from one of their main batters and it positively has to be Ricky Ponting – the captain. He must lead from the front.

Buy runs @ 85 for the Test match.

I would rather buy his series runs around 230-240 if I can find it.

Buy runs of Dale Steyn. This is a series bet of anywhere around 40. He is not a bad lower order player and this series will be won by the lower orders scoring runs. It is a punt but a value one.

Series Winner

A bit of a shock here as the price dictates we back Australia @ 7/2.

I will do each Test live and update so come back tomorrow for more.

Day Two Update

What a great morning’s cricket. I love the five day game where players receive a thorough mental, technical and character examination.

And what do we do now?

1. We love Ponting as he scored 83. We bought his Test runs at 85 so any runs in his second innings are profit.

2. I am looking to lay the draw on any dips as this match should be a result. I have one to be put on now and will filter in more lays throughout the first three days.

Big partnerships should see the draw come in considerably.

Test Update

What an amazing day for Australia. How does this help us?

Well for the series we backed Australia at a large 7/2 in a two horse race and they have South Africa 2-2 in their first innings having posted a big, big score.

And for the Test we had a policy of laying the draw on dips and we have a handsome position at the moment with profit available now but also a match that is progressing superbly and plenty quick enough.

Just a second innings from Ponting – he only needs 2 runs more for breakeven and then every run is profit – and we have a superb match.

2nd Test Preview

We still have a couple of plans already that we should be continuing from the first Test.

1. Buy Ponting runs for match at 85
2. We have a long term buy of Dale Steyn’s runs at 40. He is on 21 so far
3. Finally, our long term back of Australia to win the series is looking superb. This morning they are batting and compiling a good start

Therefore I have two plans.

The first is the above bets again. Second is a trading back of the draw for the first three days. Then I should have a decent position and want to trade it out for a green-green screen.

The price at 10.20 AM UK time is 1.9. This is worth a trading back as any sign of a good innings by South Africa will put it around 1.3 on the third day.

Final Update

As this match enters the final stretch how are we doing?

We got a small profit on Ponting runs. Good.

The Aussies dominant so our series bet at 7/2 is looking brilliant. Good.

Steyn’s series runs is currently at 29 and with another innings surely to come tomorrow it is looking fine.

As for our draw back on the first day at 1.9; it traded late on day two as low as 1.62. The profit was there for us.

As for now I feel we have done well on the first two matches so I am not adding any positions for this match.

How Did We Do?

With one Test to spare, our series back of Aussie has come in at 7/2. Secondly, our back of Steyn’s series runs circa 40 stands at 38 with one Test match left. Perfect.

3rd Test

This starts on the 19th March which should give Peter Siddle time to recover and be fit. We have done superbly on all our bets in this series so I see no real reason to change them.

Make sure you buy Ponting runs around 85 for the match. He has exceeded 90 in the last two matches giving us two small profits. However, he has not made a big one yet and this could be the game.

We have a bet running on Dale Steyn’s series runs which just needs two more to breakeven so we are sitting very pretty there. And we backed Aussie for the series win at 7/2 which has already been banked.

This Test I am again looking to back the draw on the early days and then lay it later when one side has amassed a large score. So back the draw at 2.46, a great price.

This is our trading start. Then we can update and adjust this position after the match has begun. We have had a good system for this series so why change it?