Six Nations preview

It pains me greatly as one of the finest rugby competitions in the world starts again this weekend because once more I believe England are going to be shown up as a less than average outfit. If not clueless, rudderless and useless, they won’t be far from it.

Now, I know this is a punting column but I am an Englishman and proud of the fact. I am not a blinkered one though, which is why my main thrust of betting long term in this preview is a sell of England.

And deservedly so as the rugby they play is turgid. Wales, in contrast, can be thrilling and superb.

Here are my thoughts on the six teams;

Wales

Grand Slammers again? Why not? They have the talent and confidence to do so and under the Gatland management seem to be getting better at managing expectations. Where can they fall down though? Actually, this first week as they travel to a steadily improving Scotland.

The key men for the Welsh are Lee Byrne and Shane Williams – the best pair of strike runners we have seen in the north for a long time.

Martyn Williams and Andy Powell on the open side and number 8 will also be very important to the Welsh chances. They combine well as a sneaky hardworking thief and an absolute bulldozer. Both have great energy and talent – definitely potential British Lions players, along with the previous two.

The Gethin Jenkins and Wyn Jones combo upfront also has some stout heart to match the silly hair.

Wales look very impressive indeed. They are the form side and if they can navigate this potential hiccup on Saturday a solid bet for the tournament and potential Grand Slam.

Scotland

Under Frank Hadden they are getting better – helped somewhat by coaches like Andy Robinson at Edinburgh. I expect them to prove mighty awkward customers for all but the teams on their best mettle. They have a trip to Twickenham which is a tough ask for them but they could provide a few upsets.

Ireland

The second best side in the tournament but too often disappointing when it counts. I like the idea of Paddy Wallace at centre with Brian O’Driscoll but I still have to favour Wales over them. Paul O’Connell is key and they do have England and France at home. I expect these to be the challengers to Wales.

Italy

The Italians are shorn of depth and hampered by the ELV’s which has taken away their powerful maul. What they do still have though is one hell of a scrum and in Sergio Parisse a shoe-in for most teams in the world. It’s too much to ask of them though to turn over any side but they do have Wales, Ireland and France in Rome so they are looking like wooden spoonists.

England

England are very weak in the second row with two line-out jumpers and technicians but no grunt. I like Goode at fly-half with Ellis – the old Leicester combo – and an acknowledgement that England needs to move forward via boot and grunt before trying to play. I also think that Steffan Armitage could prove a real find and want to see his pace, energy and scrapping against Williams of Wales.

France

The French are in decline and fearful at the moment. Along with England they come into the Six Nations as the most disappointing side in the tournament. We will have an interesting match when they come to London though!

I expect them to be dull to watch as they lack the normal Gallic snap at scrum-half and surprisingly have one of the weaker front rows.

My Predictions

1. Wales
2. Ireland
3. France
4. England
5. Scotland
6. Italy

Bets

Wales to win @ 11/5
Wales to complete the Grand Slam @ 6/1
Anytime try scorer Lee Byrne @ 1/2 and Brian O’Driscoll @ 8/13
Sell England’s total points at 108 (risky as their first game is vs Italy but I don’t see England dominating anyone with tries)