Saturday preview

This weekend’s action doesn’t have a show piece akin to the Cambridgeshire Handicap last week at Newmarket, but the standard of the races at both Ascot and York have plenty more strength in depth, and if the weather forecast is correct we can expect perfect ground for both venues, possibly on the fast side at Ascot with a dry 48 hours leading up to both cards.

Ascot

Starting at Ascot and the big handicap among the conditions races is at 2.20 over one and a half miles.

Top weight is set to be carried by the progressive Red Gala, but I suspect he will be no value and there are two horses I will be playing each-way against Sir Michael Stoute’s charge.

First up, CASTLE HOWARD, a horse many people believe is better over a mile and three quarters, but one I feel needs a very testing gallop over a stiff 12 furlongs to show his very best form coming from off the pace.

His run in the Ebor left many to believe the former was true, when he didn’t get much of a run and he stayed on late so may have been flattered running past beaten horses, but two outings since I believe make him more of interest over this trip off a mark 7lbs lower than his Ebor one.

The other horse to be interested in is DUBAI TWILIGHT. This is only his 10th start and the three-year-old and came right back to form last time out over course and distance when denied a run turning for home before staying on strongly to finish third beaten a length and three quarters off All The Best.

I believe with a clear run the Barry Hills’ charge would have won and although this is a better race he will surely be in the mix with better luck in running.

Godolphin’s IBN KHALDUN outshone his rivals both in the paddock and on the track at Ascot two weeks ago and deserves his shot at the Group Three Autumn Stakes and I take him to take the step up succesfully.

However, this will be no gimme for him as I expect Yahrab (down in class after running behind McCartney and then City Leader) and bigger priced Redolent to test him to the limit, both should not be underestimated.

Later on, the highly rated CONFRONT should get off the mark at the second time of asking in the class two event at 3.35. He has reportedly come on a bundle for his run behind Fool’s Wildcat at Newbury and the son of Nayef can take of both Eastern Gift and Stimulation.

York

Over at York, big fields mean one thing; that the draw will be of paramount importance and as we saw at the Ebor meeting the track can dry out very quickly and good to soft (good in places) could well be good (good to firm in places by Saturday).

The opening race over nine furlongs as always provides us with another massive field and I expect a big run from FULLVICTORY. This game sort has run well here before and his penultimate outing behind Zaahid looks rock solid and with a run I expect him to reach a place at the very least.

The six furlong handicap at 3.45 could be made for TAWAASSOL back to form with a fair fourth on fast ground at Newmarket and one that may well be better suited to being held up for that little longer.

At Headquarters I think Richard Hills was mindful of his charge being outpaced, but he over compensated for that fact and the final 75 yards up the hill was just too much as he had shot his bolt.

On this faster track he won’t be able to give away too much ground, but if Hills can get him well away again and race as a presser rather than a pace setter then I think he could go close at a price.

Of course in such a competitive affair there are any number of dangers including Hoh Hoh Hoh (deserves to win a big race) and outsider King Orchisios (becoming very well weighted).