RWC semi-finals

Iain Fletcher should be pleased about England’s 14 -9 victory over France and SA’s blinding 37 – 13 win over Argentina. He also tipped Bryan Habana to become a top try scorer and with two excellent long-range tries he did not disappoint.

Mea culpa. The quarter finals were shocking. England beating Aussie and the All Blacks losing to France destroyed my betting for the weekend. I think we now have to say the ABs are chokers.

So it is time to reduce the stakes and accept that I am enduring a tough fortnight. It happens in gambling but the last four to five months have been profitable so I do not want to waste money while struggling. Therefore reduce exposure and limits and ride the storm out.

And for these two matches that means only one thing – half stakes and trading. My instinct and research states France and SA are stronger than England and Argentina and should make up the final.

But France have twice before beaten ABs in a shock result only to follow it up with such a limp defeat it was impossible to think they were the same players only seven days older. Remember 1999 and the comeback against the Kiwis and then the abject surrender in the final against Aussie?

So these matches are trading to try and get a win-win screen.

Prices

England v France ENG 5/2; FR 2/5

So back England to start – in a cup of shock that is too big.

South Africa V Argentina SA 10/29 ; ARG 3/1

Again Argentina are too big although I would have SA win.

Bryan Habana needs two tries to be top try scorer and at 11/10 that is also worth a small punt.

He does cross the line and SA will need him to if they are to win the world cup.