Never mind all that festive crap – Christmas is a time for mugging up on your football to get some value from end of season relegations. And if anyone knows anything about going down, it’s Nick Leeson.
I’m meeting the Editor to discuss danger money. I need it – since I started writing for this magazine I’ve opened telephone betting and spread-betting accounts, placed binary bets and visited more racecourses than ever before. That’s not to mention wagering on the greyhounds, the Ryder Cup or Wimbledon. I’ve even contemplated a punt on Big Brother.
Perhaps I should take the plunge with a Betfair account. I’m told you can’t fail to make money on the exchanges – unless, perhaps, your name is Nick Leeson. You see, the adrenalin rush of a good wager does go some way to replacing the fervour and frenzy of the trading floor, but I’m no more able to control it and take a loss now than I was then. It’s like a red rag to a bull.
Not known for my informed investment decisions and timely exits from the market, I still find myself hanging on for the big payday and often end up with the position blowing up in my face. Nothing new there then. Why do we do it? If anyone knows, please let me in on the secret as I always seem to be kicking myself with another missed opportunity. If I try to equate my fee against the level of risk that I undertake there’s a factor loading of about a hundred. I tell my wife that it’s all in the name of research, so that I know what I’m talking about. If only she knew.
League of two halves
Being a die-hard Man City fan, the Christmas period always starts to make me nervous. It’s the time of the season where the results of at least twelve clubs will determine whether the rest of the season is spent in the top half of the bottom of the league or in the bottom half where relegation is a very real fear. You either spend the rest of the season in relative comfort or constant unease.
Looking at the fixtures this year, I would expect City to be galloping up the league to join clubs like Middlesborough, Aston Villa and Everton in the upper echelons. The three promoted clubs are currently favourites for relegation. On Spreadex.com’s index, where the last three teams are awarded 50-25-10 points respectively, Palace are 15-18, Norwich 19-22 and West Brom 20-23, with Southampton and the Field following at 8-11.
Nothing else attracts much interest, so it’s difficult to look outside of these three, but with Harry Redknapp resigning from Pompey in November, the chairman suggesting he’d like to walk too and a coach with little knowledge of the English game, Portsmouth at 3-6 have to be worth a punt. City despatched them quite easily at Fratton Park as well, so that’s where my money is going. I’d look to take profit in the first few months of the New Year. Likewise, at 39-40.5 in the Premiership points index, I think they’re a sell and expect them to start slipping down the league. I played golf with Harry a couple of years ago – he’s the only person I know who could go around a whole golf course with only one club.
Southampton, the other team currently in a degree of turmoil, are the only other team to really attract the spread-betting attention, although perhaps the appointment of Rednapp as a replacement for Steve Wigley will steady the ship.
When I first went to work for Barings the trading desk was run by one person. As nice as he was, he was very upper class, very aloof and more interested in rugby than football. In truth, you could probably write what he knew about football on a postage stamp. His name? Rupert Lowe. When I first came back from Singapore I used to read the football reports, read the name Rupert Lowe and not pay it any attention. Problems with Glenn Hoddle, Gordon Strachan and Paul Sturrock obviously propelled Rupert onto our television screens, and it dawned on me it was the same person.
Baring all
I know he moved from Barings to JP Morgan, but quite how he ended up running a football club is beyond me. He must have run a steeper learning curve than I was trading futures. His appointment (and the subsequent managerial revolving door policy at the club) looks about as sensible as mine in Singapore. He’ll hate the association, but it might explain a few things to Saints fans. I hasten to add that he hasn’t offered me the job of financial controller… yet.
As for which teams are likely to join the Premiership, I’m not sold on either Ipswich or Wigan. Sunderland are my favourites for promotion and they may far exceed their current Championship Points forecast of 79.5-81.5. Meanwhile, those draw specialists extraordinaire, Watford, my home town, will struggle to hit the 60.5 points they are forecast.
I’ll be following the festive results closely to get the best value next year. Make sure you do too.
