Making a fortune

	Bookies often overreact or underreact to events, so you should pounce on pricing errors the second that markets reappear

Soothsayers, mediums, astrologists and crystal-ball gazers – it’s your time now. There’s only one thing I want from you: a quick sneak peek at your lumpy ante-post vouchers.

Sorry, I forgot: you’re not in the game for the money. In that case, maybe you won’t mind giving me a free reading. A recent article in the Racing Post dealing with ante-post betting on horses has inspired me to give my thoughts on future events betting.

The most important point to bear in mind when betting on future horse racing is the amount of time that will elapse before the race takes place. It’s just as likely that the race favourite will be dead or injured by race time as a 100/1 outsider. It would be madness to be taking 7/4 now about Moscow Flyer or Well Chief for the 2006 Champion Chase at Cheltenham next March, quite apart from the fact that the prices are appalling value. My self-imposed rules for ante-post horse racing are that the minimum prices I will take are as follows:

6 months+ to the race – No bet*

5-6 months to the race – 33/1

4-5 months to the race – 25/1

3-4 months to the race – 20/1

2-3 months to the race – 14/1

1-2 months to the race – 10/1

Less than 1 month to the race – 7/1

*Never back two-year-olds to win Classics if the horse has turned three by the time the race is run

However, if you compare and contrast horse racing with other sports, you’ll find the best ante-post bets are to be found on the latter, and for three reasons.

First, if you back a team, you will always get a run for your money. Second, humans can talk. If an athlete is injured, whether a footballer, cricketer or golfer, you will find out about it far sooner than if a horse is. Finally, if a horse who has entries in ante-post races wins a prep race, its price will be cut instantly, whereas a team that has been underrated by the bookmakers and is still improving will hardly cause a ripple in future markets. Hearts were slashed from 400/1 to 8/1 to win the Scottish Premier League, but 14/1 was still available for the Tennant’s Scottish Cup and CIS Insurance Cup until I took it!

Ante-post haste

Once an ante-post sport event has started (Premiership, Cricket County Championship, F1 Drivers’ Championship etc), the bookies will bet in-running. They will suspend the markets while each match or race takes place and re-price afterwards. They often overreact or underreact to events, so pounce on pricing errors the second that markets reappear, having already priced up to 100% yourself.

In a sport where there’s a vertical draw (for example, a snooker event where each player’s potential route to the final is pre-ordained), the section of the draw containing each team/competitor is vital. You’ll often find that the draw is lopsided, with many of the top teams or competitors in one half and few in the other. Some bookmakers are slow to adjust their prices to reflect this, and so good value each-way bets can be found in the weak half of the draw.

You’ll have many excellent-value in-running bets and you can trade out of part of them at much shorter prices on betting exchanges in-running, especially if your selections now have been over-bet and represent bad value. When you’ve taken 20/1 about a 12/1 chance that now trades at 4/1, you should always trade out if you now make the true price (say) 6/1 and you can lay 5/1 on the exchanges.

It’s interesting to watch the outright market prices when a tennis or snooker player is in play in a match. The winner will progress to the next round, but the loser will be eliminated. If you can assess the true outright price in-running (which is directly related to the true match price), you’ll see some very good and very bad value and take advantage of it.

Ante-post markets for football remain open during matches, and the same applies in cup competitions and at the end of league competitions. Obviously, volatility will increase in the last few games of a league season, as literally every goal in each of their matches will affect the outright prices of all contenders in a closely fought league. People leave prices up and forget to cancel them when matches are being played. There’s also quite poor liquidity on most ante-post markets on betting exchanges, but this should improve over time.

As for getting my fortune read, I’ve had to agree to show the medium my ante-post slips in lieu of payment. So I will do a little soothsaying of my own and predict her next client gets some great advice!

The Helsinkers and swimmers

Finally, here are the real winners and losers from the World Athletics Championships in Helsinki back in August:

FIRST CLASS: Ladbrokes were once again way ahead of the field, pricing up far more events earlier than other timid bookies and always laying a decent bet.

NO CLASS: We delivered 125 athletics betting slips to Ladbrokes’ head office in Rayners Lane, together with a detailed schedule claiming payment of just over £58,000. They took two weeks to deal with it.