How to trade on the NFL

There has been some interest in the NFL trading philosophy that I adopt most weekends and so below is an example of one of Sunday’s games that I traded. Hopefully the reasoning will help you in your trading and allow you to generate profits whoever wins.

Before we go into my trading strategies it is vital that we look back at my preview of the game in question;

New England Patriots (6-4) @ Miami Dolphins (6-4), Sunday 6pm, Sky Sports

Normally this would be an easy call, the Patriots to win and probably by at least 10 points. But there is no Tom Brady, Miami are much improved from the last two years and the form is actually with the home team who have won their last three games while the Pats have gone loss-win-loss.

So, as you can see, it’s not so simple this time.

Yet we must study a little deeper. Miami’s three wins have been against lowly sides – Seattle, Denver and Oakland. The Patriots beat Buffalo but then lost to the Colts and the Giants. So maybe there is less to be read into the recent results. I certainly think so.

After scoring 31 points against the Giants, who have an excellent defense, I reckon the Pats are ready for a breakout run of wins to secure a play-off spot.

This game centres on two things for me:

1. The creativity of the Miami offense. If they mix and match many wild plays as they did in week 3 vs New England, it can be spectacular.

2: Matt Cassel’s deep arm to hit Randy Moss for the Pats. If he can bolster that then there are TD’s galore but he has yet to deliver on that front.

Stats:

Most points in a Miami home game this season is 41
Miami have lost two at home (Jets and Baltimore)

I could argue for both sides here although I have a sneaky regard for the Patriots.

However, the bookies do not separate them.

Miami Dolphins 5/6
New England Patriots 21/20

Therefore I shall not try either but will hope it is close and trade against the side scoring first hoping to keep laying teams at around 1.6.

The Trading Diary

That was the advice pre-game and as the Patriots fell to a shorter price before the kick-off I started with an early back of Miami at 2.18.

Pats received first and drove upfield but only scored a field goal. The key now was whether or not Miami could move the ball. If not I was ready to flip my whole position and just back the Pats.

Miami went 4 and out and had to punt but there was one stupid drop and one good short pass for 8 yards. There was indication that they could move the ball.

BET: still on Miami at 2.18

Next, the Pats went 4 and out before Chad Pennington drove Miami downfield for the first touchdown of the game. It was the wildcat offense that the Pats hate with the RB taking the snap and plenty of trick plays.

BET: Lay Miami @ 1.92 (profit on Miami and level on the Patriots)

My Plan: At this stage I felt Miami had trickey and could score just like they did in week 3 when they beat the Patriots. But also the Pats were offensively very good and I wanted them onside more than Miami.

The price moved out and so I next backed Patriots @ 2.08.

Next, Matt Cassel and the Pats moved the ball well and went all the way for a TD. This meant that the next bet was to lay the Patriots @ 1.86.

By this time, we have just entered the second quarter and I have a feel for the game and a profit on both teams. I still reckoned the Patriots would win so from now on my betting was more backing Pats when they got the ball and trading out at the end of their plays as they moved downfield.

The whole stake was used each time so I kept putting Miami on my maximum loss allowed so I could use that intial stake level and the profit generated to increase my bets size and exposure.

All that means is I wanted to keep scalping profits on the Pats until the final quarter where I could leave them to run or even up my profits on both teams – which I did.

A couple of the backs of the Pats went wrong and cautiously I backtracked with a loss and others won. The end result was a win of over 26% whatever the final outcome and I stopped trading midway through the 3rd quarter.

Now 26% may not sound much to a punter when prices like evens are on offer but when you act as if the sport is a stock and scalp profits then 26% profit whoever wins is a splendid and secure way of advancing your account profitability.

It is much less like gambling than just backing a team and having exposure.

Then I did similar on the New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals game.

That was an even match as well and again I wanted to side more with the Giants but I traded neatly using the same processes for another 15% win on both teams.