Ever get confused when you hear golf fans talking about ‘three-ball’ and ‘two-ball’ betting? Never fear – golf betting expert James Collins is here to explain what it’s all about, and how you can stiff the bookies.
If you mention the terms ‘two-ball’ or ‘three-ball’ to a casual punter or non-golf fan, they’ll stare at you blankly, as if to say: ‘What on earth are you talking about?’
Put simply, betting on two- or three-ball golf is predicting which player, of two or three scheduled to play together in a golf tournament, will shoot the lowest score that day. It basically turns golf into a tennis match, with two (or three) players fighting it out to prove who is the finest on the day.
With three-ball, three prices are offered and dead-heat rules apply in the event of two or more players registering the same number. With two-ball, the bookies again offer three prices, as the tie is also priced up.
Stay on form
No wonder so many golf punters prefer this form of betting – if you’re trying to pick the outright winner of a golf tournament where more than 100 players are competing for glory, you often feels like you’re looking for a needle in a haystack. However, with two- and three-ball, you can focus on fewer players and specialise in order to find better value.
How does betting strategy for three- and two-ball golf differ from betting on the outright winner? Well, many of the basic rules are actually the same. Course form and current form should always be your first port of call, as these will give you a clear outline of which players you can expect to perform well.
For example, should we be surprised that Jerry Kelly won his first-round three-ball at the Sony Open in Hawaii in January after posting three successive top-five finishes in the event? Or that Luke Donald outscored his opponents on day one of the Buick Invitational, also in January, after he had posted a top-15 finish the previous week, while his opponents, Dennis Paulson and Skip Kendall, hadn’t played the week before and were coming off the back of a disappointing 2004? Course form and current form would have guided you towards both selections.
However, there are specific factors to bear in mind. When sizing up two or three players competing against each other, you must remember that players’ goals are different. Some may simply be looking to avoid the cut, while others may need to finish above a particular player in order to improve their ranking and gain entry into a bigger tournament.
Take into account, too, the profile of the tournament and the experience levels of the players in question. At the 2004 Caltex Masters, veteran American Greg Hanrahan, who was unusually high up the leaderboard, said he ‘couldn’t afford’ to attack on the final round, whereas Colin Montgomerie, the eventual winner, could. Why? For Hanrahan, a top-three finish meant the biggest payday of his career and guaranteed his short-term future on tour, whereas Montgomerie, one of the world’s leading golfers, was accustomed to the pressures of chasing trophies. Hanrahan was happy to finish in the top three, whereas Monty went all out for glory. Astute two-ball bettors would have read the situation and backed Monty to win.
Place and chips
Some players are notorious for not bothering with ‘place money’. They simply want to win because they already have the fi nancial security or world-ranking points to consider anything other than victory meaningless. Others, however, rarely win, preferring to post top-25 finish after top-25 finish, enjoying the flow of cash into their bank accounts.
The make up of three- or two-ball groupings is vital. Rookie golfers are often intimidated if scheduled to play alongside a star name such as Tiger Woods or Ernie Els. Even if the newcomers are in form, don’t back them in such circumstances, as the big viewing galleries and the TV coverage can knock them out of their stride.
Journeyman golfers, however, while rarely winning tournaments, can use their experience to outscore an out-of-form big name over a single round, giving three- and two-ball punters plenty of value.
In essence, the key to successful three- and two-ball betting is to do more in-depth research about the way a player goes round a course. Instead of looking solely at his chances of winning the tournament, analyse his playing style, his opponents and the various motivations in play on the day.
Even if you intend to specialise on certain players, you will need to follow a large group of pros, as you never know who will be drawn to play against each other.
Finally, here’s an odd thing to say in this age of betting exchanges: betting with traditional fixed-odds bookmakers usually offers better value than the betting exchanges. There simply isn’t the liquidity on the exchanges to give you good value when betting on three- and two-ball golf. I’m sure it will come, but for most rank-and-file tournaments, you’re more likely to get a better price and the money you want with high-street and online fixed-odds firms.
Top tips for three- and two-ball betting
1.) Always check course and current form.
2.) Understand a player’s goals in that tournament, on that day.
3.) Study the round-by-round stats of the players you fancy backing – and his opponents’.
4.) Keep assessing the players’ goals and motivations throughout the day.
ONE TO BACK: Nick Faldo
Get your money on Nick Faldo when the BMW Championship (formerly the Volvo PGA Championship) is played at Wentworth on 26-29 May. The former world No. 1 might be past his prime and focused more on his TV work this season, but when he tees it up at the Surrey venue, there are few with a better record. Faldo hasn’t posted an above-par score at Wentworth in the last five years, and his second-round stroke average is 67.75. Against more fashionable, in-form opponents, Faldo will always be a value punt in the three- and two-ball betting stakes.
ONE TO OPPOSE: Phil Mickelson
He has a reputation for not caring where he finishes if he can’t win, so Mickelson is readily opposable in last round two-balls whenever he is out of contention for victory. Last season, the Masters champion played in 22 events on the US tour, posting 13 top-ten efforts and missing the cut three times. Of the six times he made the weekend’s play but didn’t contend the title, he managed to break par only once in round four. His last-day scoring average in those six tournaments was 72.5. Punters who opposed him on the last-day two-balls made a handsome profit.
WHEN TO BET
The best time to practice three-and two-ball betting is during the four Major tournaments and the two stroke-play World Golf Championship events. Bookmakers always price up more groups and pairings for these events, so you have a much better chance of finding value bets.
Also watch out for tournaments that are live on terrestrial telly as opposed to satellite, such as the British Masters and the BMW Championship in May, and the Scottish Open in July, as they often have more markets.
7-10 April: US Masters
12-15 May: British Masters
26-29 May: BMW Championship
16-19 June: US Open
7-10 July: Scottish Open
14-17 July: The Open Championship
11-14 August: USPGA Championship
18-21 August: WGC-NEC Invitational
6-9 October: WGC-American Express Championship
