FA Cup

The under 2.5 on goals was the way to go, with Portsmouth winning 1-0. 

In an extraordinary season the FA Cup semi final line up is one nobody could have predicted. Portsmouth are odds on favourites to lift the trophy at Wembley in May, they face West Brom in their semi final, and the only remaining Premier League side probably can’t believe their luck.

Looking at the games this weekend, Cardiff take on Barnsley in the other last four clash, I think the bookmakers have overestimated the likelihood of goals between the two tournament favourites and, with both set of players bound to be nervous on such a big occasion, I think it could be pretty cagey.

West Brom remain in the hunt for automatic promotion to the top flight and they are the Championship’s leading scorers. They face defences no way near as resolute as Pompey’s every week however and coming up against the likes of Campbell and Distin will be a different proposition for them altogether.

Although Kevin Phillips is bound to feature for West Brom, Portsmouth’s leading goal scorer Jermain Defoe is ineligible. That will be a massive loss; his goals have been a real plus for Redknapp in the last few weeks, and although they have plenty of quality strikers that can deputise, none of them possess the England forward’s deadliness in front of goal.

While Pompey have put together a decent run of results of late it should be remembered how badly they struggled at Fratton Park to find the net earlier in the season and, with The Baggies likely to try and stifle them in midfield, they are likely to have to work very hard to penetrate them and this could go to extra time.

The match odds market looks pretty much spot on, with the Premier League side around the 1.80 mark, but as I have already alluded to I think the value lies in siding with under 2.5 goals and around 1.90 on the exchanges looks decent. It could go either way, but I’d be surprised if either side dominates and a low scoring draw looks the most likely outcome.