England v India

Update Monday 11:15:

Our lay at around 1.8 three days ago has been in and out of profit all weekend and really should have been traded.

If not, an early wicket and the price will ricochet back out.

For today I am fairly cautious and would rather reduce any exposure – indeed I reckon if England bat well the draw will be comfortable as the Indians have already won the series.

So caution this morning and protect your bankroll.

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Update Friday 12:04: Laxman gone!

Plenty of time left in this match so time to take the plunge and lay draw circa 1.8.

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Update Thursay Tea: Well England touched 15 – well done if you traded out.

Now after two quick wickets they are down at 5.5ish, which is still a good profit for us.

It is up to you if you want to close out.

I am hanging on happily – I think India have the bowlers here to win.

But next 45 minutes will be very important to this match. Also, the draw is way too short as per usual.

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Update Thursday Lunch: The draw price has shortened to 1.81.

This is silly. But why get on with our lays now when we can wait. I reckon the way it has moved it could hit 1.6 today if India keep batting with impunity and the pitch stays good then our price could be much cheaper.

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Update Thursday 11.30am: Our pre match lay of England is working well. From 2.6 (the price we got) to above 4 in the first half-an hour.

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England v India, Thursday 11am

Well I am in a bit of a hole here. Dravid was my run buy and he has only 59 and needs a double century for parity!!

Even the great struggle on occasion I suppose.

Now for this match I am letting this bets run. I elected to back because one innings would be enough, so why can’t it come at the Oval?

And the truth is, if Dravid gets in then there is the chance of a big one.

Now for some stats:

First innings totals at the Oval

2000 – 281 (v WI)
2001 – 641 (v Aus)
2002 – 515 (v India)
2003 – 484 (v SA)
2004 – 470 (v WI)
2005 – 373 (v AUS)
2006 – 173 (v Pak)

So take out last year, remember that in that match Pakistan scored in excess of 500 in their innings, and it appears that first innings totals are above 400 or at least circa 400.

Only two draws as well (and the fiasco last year when Pakistan sulked). Also, the rain affected draw against Aussie in 2005 was close to a result if another couple of catches had stuck. The other draw came against India in 2002 when both sides exceeded 500.

If the pitch is true and the weather set fair (goodness knows but two forecasts earlier in the week were contradictons as one had sun and the other rain!) then we could easily get another draw.

The ball swings less at the Oval as the more abrasive pitch stops the shine lasting, and apart from Zaheer Khan, is there a reverse swing merchant on either side? Probably not a good enough one for the job, but Tremlett could well enjoy the extra bounce.

Indeed, a lot of England’s hopes rest on him and the others offering parsimonious support. But for Tremlett to prosper, there must be pace.

Personally my belief is India have a side to win at this ground – and their worry is Tremlett on song.

The prices are:
Eng – 2.6
draw – 2.66
India – 4.2

For me that means a small lay of England immediately and my pre-match bet.

The other is a small back of Pietersen (if he plays) as top English batsman.

He has four innings at the ground of 14, 158, 0, 96.