Ed Murray

	The serious betting will come once the field is whittled down to the final 12

You may remember me as the 27-year-old South Kensington layabout in IE18. Yeah, that one who looked like he failed an audition for the Backstreet Boys. I guess having made a few bob (I’d call £150,000 more than a few bob – Ed) in the last 12 months, the editor figured I had it in me to start dishing out a few tips, so I’m here to do my best.

Speaking of wannabe boyband members, the X-Factor has made a welcome return to ITV’s autumn schedules. But while the early rounds have made for superb TV entertainment, the serious betting will mostly come once the field is whittled down to the final 12.

However, there was early value to be found in a couple of areas. Male singers and groups have usually strongly outperformed female ones, and so this year I’ve backed the winner of both the 16-24, and 25+ categories to be male. Pop Idol 1 saw Will, Gareth and Darius in the final three, Pop Idol 2 saw Sam, Mark and Michelle, and X-Factor 1 saw G4, Steve and Tabby make it to the final three. Eight of the nine finalists have been male in these shows, and I think the 5/6 on offer early on for a male winner in each of these categories represented superb value.

Shazza hazza hope

The ‘top manager’ category also looked worth an early flutter. Last time around, the final was between Louis and Simon. X-Factor really is very much a pantomime, and from the outset I felt 7/4 for Sharon to be top manager looked a good bet. She’s looking likely to make it through to the final as she missed the cut last time round. She’s also in charge of the 25+ category, which looks likely to provide fireworks from the livewire Chico, who, if he makes the final, I think has a real chance of winning on the strength of his personality and wisecracks towards Simon. I’ve backed him at 40/1 to do exactly that.

Blue mental

Now, I’m a Chelsea lad through and through. I’ve lived on Stamford Bridge’s doorstep for most of my life, but even I’m not about to get involved with the crazy prices that bookies like Hills are offering. I mean, 300/1 to win every Premiership match this season?!

Betfair haven’t got a market on this, but all I know is that if they did I wouldn’t take anything less than… let me just work this out. If you think we won 29 out of 38 matches last season – that’s a 76% chance of winning each game, and, with 31 matches to go at the time of writing, that makes, er, 5,000/1. Take any less and you’re just being a total muppet. I’m not saying Jose Mourinho and the boys don’t have it in them, but you just have to stay away when the bookies are trying to take you for a mug. Before the Villa game, the 1,000/1 to go through the whole season without conceding a goal was barmy. Last season they conceded 15 goals, and even if they only let in 13 this time – still a record – the correct odds are about 500,000/1.

The muppet show

It’s scandalous. A better bet is who will beat Chelsea first this season. At the time of writing, they’re seven to the good with only one goal conceded, but I reckon away to Portsmouth on 26 November could be a potential banana skin. Chelsea may be vulnerable having travelled back from an away game with Anderlecht three days before. If Pompey can’t do it though, I don’t see Chelsea getting beaten until well into the New Year. Arsenal’s record Premiership unbeaten run is 49 games, and the Pensioners will be looking to get to 50 – which they could do on 2 January at West Ham. They will be very focused on that.

Next month I’ll explain why all’s not fair in love and cricket on Betfair. If you’d like to have a rant and rave at me about something I’ve said or haven’t said, or maybe if you’d like to shake my virtual hand, then drop me a mail at eddy@djsunset.com.