Derby vs Man Utd

Well, it might not have been the team we expected to win but there was a lack of goals as predicted by Tom Allen. Kris Commons’ fierce strike gave Derby an unlikely 1-0 victory which banked us some healthy profit too

The second Carling Cup semi-final first leg takes place on Wednesday following Tottenham’s win over Burnley last night and Manchester United make the trip to Pride Park to play Derby.

The appointment of Nigel Clough yesterday afternoon as the new Rams manager is sure to have Derby fans positively buzzing ahead of their first domestic cup semi-final since 1968 although the ex-Burton chief will not be in the dugout. David Lowe, the academy coach, will pick the team but whichever side he goes with is sure to face a huge challenge and the visitors are, quite rightly, long odds-on shots to establish a first leg advantage.

Derby have been enormously inconsistent all season long and Paul Jewell’s departure in late December was no surprise. Relegation from the Premier League last term was a big disappointment and the club has clearly been feeling the affects ever since. A sluggish start in the Championship was not what was required this term and although Derby almost certainly have enough quality to survive, especially given Clough’s appointment which should provide extra impetuous, expectations are higher than that.

United warmed up for Wednesday’s game with a facile 3-0 win over Southampton in the FA Cup on Sunday. Derby, in contrast, were stumbling to a 4-3 win at non-league Forest Green, and Sir Alex Ferguson looks set to stick with roughly the same side that triumphed at St. Mary’s. It won’t be their first choice eleven but Berbatov, Rooney and Tevez have all been included in the squad and they should have more than enough quality to win the game.

While the United manager was always likely to field a weakened side his hand is perhaps forced even more than it might have been with Chelsea looming large, the Londoners visit Old Trafford on Sunday, and he is sure to make changes if the Red Devils gain control of proceedings. That, and their somewhat stuttering form on the road, tells me that goals might be hard to come by despite Derby’s current run of 36 games without a goalless draw. The unders, at approaching even money, appeals.

Derby’s chief goal threat is likely to come from Rob Hulse – the journeyman striker has seven league goals to his name this season, but Nathan Ellington will be absent for the hosts and that is a blow. His goals in this competition, six in total to date, have been the main reason that County have made it this far and stand-in boss Lowe may choose to go with one up front as a consequence. I see Derby, quite predictably, trying to stifle United and the home side won’t want to be out of the tie before the return at Old Trafford.

With such attacking talent, United can turn it on at will but circumstances often dictate and I don’t imagine them running riot. Derby are quite defensively sound on home soil, conceding just a goal per game, and the visitors would take a victory of any kind to all but secure their Wembley place.