CSKA vs Aston Villa

Tom Allen was right to tip CSKA Moscow to defeat Martin O’Neill’s second-string Aston Villa side. In the end it was a comfortable 2-0 victory for the Russians and there will have been a lot of punters making a good profit on that game with Moscow at such a generous price.

I started to get the feeling that Aston Villa’s season had started to unravel with defeat at Everton in the FA Cup and it was no surprise to see them beaten by Chelsea at Villa Park on Saturday. Martin O’Neill has a big job on his hands to galvanise his talented side for one last push in a bid to secure a Champions League spot and it is clear that is his priority.

The Northern Irishman has opted to leave out eight first team regulars for the trip to Russia to face CSKA and it’s very difficult to imagine the Premier League club advancing to the last 16. Vagner Love’s away goal in the West Midlands last week puts the 2005 Uefa Cup winners very much in the driving seat and I take them to book their place in the next round in style.

With the likes of Barry, Young, Agbonlahor and Heskey all left at home, Villa’s limited resources will be tested to the max on Thursday and we’ve seen on more than one occasion before this season that their fringe players haven’t been up to the task. They limped through their group, behind Ajax and Hamburg, and a similar side that were comprehensively beaten by QPR in the Carling Cup will take to the field in the Russian capital. CSKA are no QPR and the home side look a bet at around the 1.70 mark.

The standard of domestic football in Russia has risen dramatically in recent season, Zenit following up the selections success in this competition with a triumph over Rangers in the 2008 final, and the hosts were probably the most impressive side in the early rounds. Zico’s men progressed with a 100 per cent record and they bagged 12 goals in four matches in the process. Nobody else managed more.

It’s been clear to me in recent weeks that O’Neill is a man under pressure and he blamed his team’s busy schedule for defeat against the Londoners on Saturday. Leaving out so many stars for this clash provides him again with ready made excuses and I’m not sure it is wise. Villa play Stoke in the Premier League on Sunday but regaining the winning habit is a tricky one once lost and Villa seem to have surrendered their Uefa Cup place already this term in pursuit of Champions League qualification.

While I fully understand O’Neill’s predicament CSKA are a class outfit and they are not likely to be very forgiving. The one worry is that a goalless draw would suffice for the home team to progress but Villa have looked far from watertight in this competition and I’m more than happy to take the plunge, even at cramped odds. One goal should be enough for CSKA to land the spoils.