Champions League

50% for Tom here. There were enough goals in the Lazio – Werder match as Lazio won 2-1, but not so good in the second match as Rosebborg pulled off a shock 2-0 win in Valencia.

A number of very short priced home teams in the Champions League this week where Manchester United and Arsenal will be looking to secure qualification to the knockout stages on Wednesday. Both have maximum points after three games and should wrap up their place in the second round with games against Dynamo Kiev and Slavia Prague respectively.

First up Tuesday however and the bet of the night for me is a rare play in the total goals market. Lazio host Werder Bremen in Rome and both teams really need a win to stake a serious claim for qualification. With Real Madrid in the driving seat in Group C and Olympiacos hot on their heels, neither can afford to drop points and as a result I think we could see plenty of action.

Lazio, struggling domestically and without a win in Europe, are one of the more expansive Italian sides while it is well documented that Werder Bremen are probably the highest scoring, and conceding, outfits on the continent. Group C has produced 22 goals so far, that’s over 3.5 per match, and given the circumstances I think it is fair to predict another busy night for the goalkeepers.

The hosts have already conceded on ten occasions in Serie A on home turf while Bremen, with a variety of attacking options, can always be relied upon to play on the front foot. The 1.80 or thereabouts will suffice. The other wager on Tuesday is on Valencia to produce a sparkling performance under new boss Ronald Koeman. It’s his first game in charge of the Spanish side in European competition, having left PSV recently, and minnows Rosenborg should prove no match for the talented Spaniards.

Yet to draw a game in La Liga, Valencia have thrown in some terrible stuff this year with some fantastic performances, and they really need to beat the Norwegians in order to put their Champions League destiny back in their own hands. A 2-0 success at Mallorca on Saturday will have boosted confidence and the Dutchman is sure to demand another top display.

The 1.20 is way too short for me, but I cannot help think that the home side will go looking for goals and they have to be backed giving up 1.5 on the handicaps. That boosts their odds to a much more attractive looking 1.72 with Stan James and that will do for me.