InsideEdge reader Ben Long shares his easy-to-follow betting system that is already showing a healthy profit this season.
The system is based on predicting the draw. I have reasoned that, if two teams are evenly matched then there is a greater chance of there being a draw. The way to spot this is simple. Just look at the Asian Handicap. A +0 handicap implies there’s not much between the teams.
I’ve done the maths based on data from www.football-data.co.uk on the English Premiership. Betting on the draw (at the best bookie odds) when the Asian Handicap is +0 (at Bet365) would have produced a yield of 4% last season and 7.5% the season before. I would go back further but the data before doesn’t contain Asian Handicap information.
This season, the yield so far is a whopping 46.5%. Can this continue? Almost certainly not at 46.5%, but I can see this showing higher profits than in previous seasons.
Why? Because the number of goals scored is down this year. Less goals mean more chance of a draw. Betting blindly on draws will still produce a loss but with a little help from the Asian Bookies, betting selectively on draws should be very profitable this year. This system may work in other leagues too.
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