Betting on one-day matches

The summer is thankfully upon us so those like me who enjoy the thwack of leather on willow will be asking: how do you make money on one-day cricket? If you fancy a wager on the one-day game there are several rules to follow.

It never fails to amaze me just how many punters out there choose to ignore them – either they don’t know the rules, or they think they know better. But take it from a pro: you have a better chance of raking in the cash if you adhere to the basic principles every time you bet.

Where to start though? In my experience the first priority before any bet, trading position or spread price – even before you look at the two teams – is to conduct a thorough search on recent fixtures at the ground where the game takes place. Try the stats section of www.cricinfo.com and trawl through the relevant info.

Determine an average score for the venue – is there a bias towards the side batting first or second winning most? And do floodlights have an inflated effect on the outcome? Bear in mind that in recent seasons the lights in England have improved dramatically from the early days when the team batting second needed miners’ lamps. In those days the chasers always lost, or near as dammit, but nowadays the floodlights have less impact. These stats are crucial because they give us parameters from which we can work out our own prices.

Do your homework

Next you have to consider the teams and current form. Basics, I know, and all very dull, but when your hard-earned is at stake it’s better to get the basics done and done well.

Most teams have one or two key players who disproportionately skew the prices, both pre-match and in-running. For England, for example, they’re Andrew Flintoff and Kevin Pietersen, and for Australia the huge one is Adam Gilchrist.

This distortion applies only to batting, and it matters a lot, because in one-day cricket betting is totally dominated by the batting team, which is where the weight of money goes – with good reason too. Test matches are about taking 20 wickets, but one-dayers are about who scores the most runs. So you’d be wise to ignore everything else, concentrate on what the batsmen are doing, and then react accordingly because the betting market will inevitably exaggerate their actions and reactions. For example, a couple of early boundaries and the batting team shortens in price considerably despite the fact that, with only four fi elders allowed outside the 30-yard circle, there are bound to be fours and sixes.

Keep your eye on the bat

Normal cricket provokes abnormal pricing and that’s valuable for us punters. But how can you benefit from it? In fixed odds it’s often possible to back both sides in the early stages of their innings for a profit, whatever happens. Imagine that – back Side A after a couple of overs and enjoy the run-feast. Then during the interval back Side B at a much larger price and wait. It’s similar in truth to backing and laying one side on the exchanges but it’s a good betting rule to follow that will often net you a profit.

Also be aware that internationals – the matches with the biggest publicity, attention and therefore liquidity – tend to be played on batsman-friendly pitches. No national cricket board, TV firm, sponsor or host ground wants their flagship matches to be all over by 5.30pm with a highest score of 160. Such results are much more frequent on already-used pitches in the Totesport league but not in internationals, where ‘flat belters’ are the norm, so watch the runs and profit from them by supporting the batting sides.

One way to do that is to back the team that wins the toss as they usually bat first. Teams can drop from 1.9 (9/10) to 1.8 (4/5) just on calling heads correctly, although it must be stated that the bigger moves on winning the toss generally happen to the favourites.

Having mentioned the Totesport I should explain my comment on already-used pitches. During the summer many county grounds experience more traffic than the M25. First-team matches, second-eam matches, local county cup finals and so on all take place. There are never enough strips on the square, so some get re-used. Pitches wear and as they wear the bounce gets increasingly variable, they turn more and any cracks widen.

All of these things make run scoring harder, so listen to the commentators pre-match and if they do a pitch report, bribe the kids to keep quiet, threaten the wife with stopping her credit cards and turn the TV up. The chaps that do them – Allott, Botham, Lloyd, Hussain, Atherton and the like – may be varied in their broadcasting skills but they all know cricket pitches. A vast portion of their lives have been spent staring down at strips of grass and mud – the rest, of course, spent in various bars around the globe – so when they talk, ignore any prejudice and take note.

Once the match has begun, one reasonably consistent way to make money is the middle overs on an innings – say overs 20 to 35. This is the time when the batsmen accumulate five or six an over with little risk and the bowling side deploy their weaker bowlers. Back the batting side for a chunk of this period if their price doesn’t shorten too much in the opening hour. The exception is Australia in the field as they tend to keep a strike bowler back for this spell to stop the easy run scoring. It’s usually Brett Lee, so study the teams beforehand.

Study the form

One market that’s interesting is the top scorer for each side. Because one-day matches tend to be played in a block, the blokes who start the series in form tend to be the ones that finish it in form. Remember how Graeme Hick smashed consecutive hundreds against Australia and Sri Lanka and, of course, how last year big Freddie Flintoff did similar versus New Zealand and the West Indies?

If you’re going to back just one player from a team, back one who bats a lot of overs (one who should bat in the top five) and has a track record of scoring centuries. Quick 40s won’t win the bet – hundreds will.

And finally, never assume a big first innings total wins the game. If the chasing side gets to 100/1 or 100/2 in about 20 to 22 overs, watch their price motor downwards as people start to realise it’s a real contest. Teams at 2/1 or more will creep down and then suddenly the money will flip over to them and the price will crash – 2.6 (8/5) to 1.6 (6/10) has happened too often for it to be random, and it normally takes only five overs. I must admit I’ve never timed it perfectly even when I’m watching for it, but I’ve enjoyed 2.2 (10/9) to 1.8 (8/10) in about 12 balls often enough to keep me happy. Don’t just take my word for it – try it yourself.