The weather plays a pivotal role in the outcome of sports events, so why do so many punters ignore it? Dan Townend explains what to look for when casting your eyes to the skies.
Everyone tells us it’s a national obsession; we all have an opinion on the weather and it’s probably the most common subject of conversation across the country. More importantly, understanding the weather’s effect on a sporting event is vital for a sports gambler. Anyone who has played Sunday league football or golf knows only too well that sport becomes an entirely different ball game when the rain is lashing down and the wind blows. And yet punters almost always underestimate how much difference the weather can make, even though it has a massive impact on results, margins of victory and playing styles.
Bright weather, warm sun and lack of wind mean the best will probably win. However, when conditions turn, upsets become much more likely as conditions level the playing field. Speed, skill and flair start to take a secondary role behind safety, strength and control.
Knowledge of weather conditions should be a vital part of every gambler’s research. In an age of spread betting, Asian handicaps and over/under betting (where you bet on a team scoring higher or lower than a number of points), you can make money, particularly when lazy punters, and even the odd bookmaker, don’t bother checking the skies.
RUGBY UNION / RUGBY LEAGUE
Games of possession are among the most affected by the weather. In rugby, wet conditions make simply holding the ball difficult and elaborate passing almost impossible, so forwards can easily dominate games. As a gambler, look for teams with big packs that can dominate games by driving the ball, particularly if they have a good, accurate kicker who can kick into touch for position.
In such conditions, teams take more kicks at goal on the basis that games are likely to be tighter, so try-scoring opportunities probably won’t come around as often.
High winds also make kicking even more important. A kicker who can handle the conditions will win the game against one who can’t.
Punters should look to sell over/under totals, as the effect of the weather is frequently underestimated. If you’re a spread bettor, sell points, try shirts and buy kicking yards in wet and windy conditions.
FOOTBALL
Wet and windy conditions are great levellers in football, but the effect is hard to quantify. If there’s a howling gale, it’s not surprising that the pinpoint passes favoured by good teams are more likely to go astray. Better sides still have the edge in adverse conditions, but a turn-up is more likely.
Travel is another key factor. A long battle against the elements to get to an away match is far from ideal preparation. Trips to more inaccessible parts of the country (for example, the deeper recesses of Easy Anglia and the West Country) help explain the often formidable home records of teams such as Norwich City.
Another hunch worth considering from a spread-betting perspective is that referees are often more lenient come the winter (the highest bookings tallies are in August and September and then again at the end of the season in the spring). Could it be that players making sliding tackles in the wet get the benefit of the doubt? This undoubtedly happens, so look to sell bookings make-ups in such situations.
CRICKET
The effects of the weather are more subtle here but have a huge impact. How a pitch will play in the prevailing conditions is never certain until the first ball is bowled – and if you’re quick to spot what’s happening you can make a killing both on the spreads and with in-running betting on team and batsman runs.
Overcast, humid conditions make batting almost impossible with a swinging and seaming ball. Day/night matches heavily favour sides batting first because they can expect normal daylight conditions, while the team batting second face dewy conditions and poorer light. Teams batting first win more than 55% of day/night matches across the world – a trend on which you should cash in.
Spread bettors should also specifically be aware that rain-interrupted, one-day games heavily favour teams chasing. When totals needed to win are reduced because of the weather conditions, teams set a run-chase over 20 overs or so can still lose the game, but, realistically, not by too many runs.
AMERICAN FOOTBALL
One of my favourite weather-related markets is going low on the over/under points and selling touchdown shirt numbers on the spreads when the wind blows. Conditions in the US are far more extreme than in Europe – freezing conditions, snow and high winds aren’t uncommon later in the NFL season. As with rugby, tough conditions put the emphasis on ball control, field position and taking what points are available from field goals.
Expect to see teams run the ball rather than pass the ball, as throwing an American football any distance accurately in extreme conditions is almost impossible. If a team is running the ball more, touchdowns are much more likely to be scored by running backs (numbered in the 20s and 30s) than wide receivers (numbered in the 80s), and so selling shirt numbers is the value bet.
Teams from the warmer southern states struggle when they travel north. Tampa Bay, Miami and New Orleans all have terrible records playing outdoors in sub-zero temperatures. Similarly, look for good cold-weather teams such as Buffalo, New England, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Green Bay to become more dominant at home as the season wears on and the temperatures drop.
GOLF
What makes better golfers stand out is the ability to play well consistently under pressure. And being able to do that in wet and windy conditions is the mark of the best. Controlling a golf ball in high winds is down to three basic skills. The first is staying calm to recover from a bad shot or a bad hole, which everyone is bound to experience in tricky conditions.
The second is driving accuracy – look for players who consistently find the fairways. If a player is struggling to find the short grass in normal conditions, they’re going to find it much harder when it’s blustery.
Finally, look for players with a natural ‘bad weather’ style. Players who hit the ball low so that it flies ‘under’ the wind are likely to have more success, as are those who may come from areas where windy conditions are the norm (for example, Scotland and Texas). Also, cross-refererence weather forecasts and start times: knowing when a player is teeing off and when the weather is set to change can give wise punters a big advantage in both fixed-odds and spread-match bets.
