We’ve pumped our experts, trawled the formbooks and grilled professional gamblers nationwide to ensure 2005 is a winning year for you. Hundreds of class punting opportunities have been boiled down to just 50 – the very best bets for 2005. The following feature will show you the way to wagering nirvana.
When we sat down at the end of October and wondered what the hell we were going to run as our cover story in this issue, someone came up with the bright idea of running a feature on the best bets to make in 2005. It proved quite an undertaking.
The editorial team at InsideEdge knows quite a lot about football, their racing knowledge is pretty good, too, but when it comes to rugby league and tennis, you can forget it. That’s why, during the course of the last year, we’ve found the best people in the country, many of them professional gamblers themselves, to tell you where the betting action should be in any sport you can think of. You name it, we’ve covered it.
They don’t just tell you who they think is going to win and should be backed in a race, an event or a tournament, though. They tell you who or what can’t win and must be laid on the betting exchanges, which football team’s points tally has to be sold on the spreads, what golfer isn’t likely to make the cut, which tennis player should be backed now and laid before a tournament. Using the many different ways there are to trade these days, you really can make the betting game pay. And you can start by following the advice here throughout 2005.
HORSE RACING
01.) BACK ROYAL ROSA EACH WAY AT 10/1 FOR THE WORLD HURDLE AT CHELTENHAM
With Baracouda on the downgrade and Iris Royal likely to go chasing if he races at all this season, Royal Rosa is a stonking each-way bet at a top-priced 10/1 for this particular race. Be warned, though: you may not be able to get the 10/1, because we’ve grabbed a bucket load of it!
02.) HAVE A WAGER ON BACK IN FRONT AT 16/1 FOR THE CHAMPION HURDLE
The Champion Hurdle is one of the most open ante-post events this National Hunt season. Don’t be tempted to back Rooster Booster – he won’t win it. The forgotten horse is Back in Front, who had several niggles last season and was given a very easy time by his shrewd handler. He showed by winning on the flat recently that all is now well and, at around 16/1, is an absolutely mammoth price for the race. If both he and Royal Rosa do the biz, I may even pay off the Editor’s mortgage (Terrific! – Ed) if he gets down on his knees and begs! (Bugger that – Ed)
03.) LAY BEST MATE FOR THE GOLD CUP
Don’t take a short price about Best Mate now or even seven days before the race. The only reason he was pushed so hard in last year’s renewal was because the ground was dead after heavy overnight showers. This horse needs fast ground. Under such conditions his biggest rivals to date – Kingscliff, Sir Rembrandt and Beef or Salmon – would be at a huge speed disadvantage. However, should the rains come in profusion, either one of the three would have a sound claim to taking the scalp of Henrietta Knight’s charge. And here’s one piece of overwhelming statistical evidence that suggests he will fail to make it a fourth time. Over the last two years, the Cheltenham Festival has featured 40 races. No fewer than 37 of them were won by horses aged nine or under. Best Mate will be ten years old when he turns up at Prestbury Park for the Gold Cup next March.
04.) BACK A FIVE-YEAR-OLD TO WIN THE ARKLE CHASE AT THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL IN MARCH
With their 4lb allowance, they always have a distinct advantage over their elders.
05.) BACK YOUR PICK EARLY FOR THE GRAND NATIONAL
If you fancy something big time for the Grand National and the horse is 33/1 or less, figures show you must back the animal at least seven to ten days before the race. Why? Because the bookies are the tightest bastards on God’s Earth in the lead-up to the race. On average, the bookies shorten the price of horses in the top half of the betting by up to 25% each during that time span.
06.) BACK THE FAVOURITE FOR THE GRAND NATIONAL
Everyone knows the Grand National fences are nothing like as fierce as they once were. What’s more, the race is a much better spectacle as a handicap, with many of the 40-odd runners now running off their proper mark in the race. Nonetheless, favourites still have a decent record in the great race. A tenner staked each time on the winning jolly over the last decade would have yielded £160 for £100 staked.
07.) BET ON DISTANT PROSPECT TO WIN A BIG HANDICAP HURDLE
We’ve no doubt this horse will claim victory in a big handicap hurdle in 2005. The horse jumps for fun and goes well at Cheltenham. 2m 5f around there would suit, so watch out for a huge gamble on him at Prestbury Park. He is a winner waiting to happen over hurdles, and Andrew Balding showed with Scorned at Sandown last year that he is the perfect trainer to pull off such a coup.
08.) USE FIRST-HAND JUDGEMENT WHEN PICKING A HORSE FOR THE NOVICE EVENTS AT THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL
Trust yourself – don’t be blinded by what the press says about certain novices being certainties to win this, that and t’other in the novice events at Cheltenham. Watch the horses run and then judge them. All the scribes were waxing lyrical about Sporazene after he won his first novice chase at Exeter, but to my eyes he was workmanlike at best and jumped poorly. Sure enough, he fell next time out with long odds on. If he wins the Arkle, I’ll marry the Managing Editor’s daughter, and I haven’t even met her yet! Sporazene is one to swerve big time.
09.) LOOK FOR A HORSE PRICED AT 20/1 OR MORE TO BE AN EACH-WAY SUCCESS AT THE GOLD CUP
This is an excellent-value bet, as at least one horse has finished in the frame priced at 20/1 or more in all but one of the last 15 renewals of the big race (the exception being 1996).
10.) BACK THE FAVOURITE TO WIN THE ST LEGER AT DONCASTER
September 2005 is a fair way off for making a prediction. However, in recent years, the St Leger, which is the last of the five English flat racing Classics, has been the best one in which to have a lumpy bet on the favourite. Rule of Law’s victory in the 2004 renewal made it seven winning jollies out of the last ten. If you’d staked a tenner a race on each of the favourites over the last decade, you would be holding £228, a profit of £128 on top of your £100 wagered.
11.) BACK THE FAVOURITE IN THE STEWARDS’ CUP RUN AT GLORIOUS GOODWOOD IN AUGUST
Yep, that’s right – we’re giving you the winner of next year’s high-summer, 30-runner cavalry charge across the Sussex Downs before you’ve even had chance to scoff your Christmas lunch. Despite endless speculation each year about draw bias, going and all the rest of it, this is a race that, over the long term, has been kind to punters who steam into the favourite. £10 staked on each of the last ten market leaders in this race would have yielded a tasty overall return of £250, a profit of £150. The previous race on the card, the Group 1 Nassau Stakes, has also been good for favourites in recent years (producing a return of £160 for £100 staked). So consider a win double on both market leaders on the day!
12.) BACK THE FAVOURITE IN THE ROYAL & SUN ALLIANCE HURDLE AT THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL
If you do want to steam into a favourite at the Festival, make sure it’s the market leader in this race. This event is the one that has been most punter-friendly over the last decade. Basically, this is a ‘class will out’ race. It’s always a tough affair for horses with limited experience over obstacles and, results-wise, the cream tends to rise to the surface in this race more than in any of the others. If you had put £10 on the favourite in each of the last ten renewals, you would have returned £123 for £100 staked. Not a colossal return it’s true but, crucially, a positive one.
FOOTBALL
13.) BACK THE DRAW IN ALL SPANISH SECOND-DIVISION MATCHES
Want to know the most boring division in European football? I’ll tell you: it’s the Segunda Divisi
