How to play the bubble in sit-and-gos

The six-max sit-and-go may well be one of the last remaining ‘soft’ games in no-limit hold’em. Tournaments are full of sharks, cash games full of nits and nine-man sit-and-gos have become boring push or fold exercises. But somehow, six-max sit-and-gos have remained relatively exploitable. There is plenty money to be made for those who invest a little bit of time and energy into perfecting their strategy. And nowhere is this more important than on the bubble.

On the bubble in a six-max game, the blinds are usually considerably lower than in a nine-man. As a consequence, there is a lot of scope for mediocre players to make errors, and for sharks to feast on them. At this stage in a nine-man game, as stacks become shallow relative to the blinds, it is not uncommon to see an all-in move every single hand. Mistakes are common but generally limited to either shoving too wide or too narrow, or calling too loose or too tight.

Six-max bubble periods are more nuanced and offer plenty room to outplay your opponents. But locking up a cash and surviving the six-max bubble is an art form that requires some deft manoeuvring. Min-raising, re-shoving, floating and barrelling, almost unheard of on a nine-man bubble, are all viable strategies in six-max.

The beauty of six-max sit-and-gos is the possibilities are endless. The pressure of the huge jump from 0% to 35% of the prize pool, combined with the relatively deep stacks when the bubble comes around, allows for some fascinating and sophisticated lines that really test the nerve and heart of your opponents.

Different strokes

There is no better way to look at the varying strategies needed in 6-max games than by studying a hypothetical scenario. Let’s take a hand on the bubble with the blinds at 100/200 and see how our decisions change based on being the big stack of 4,000, the medium stack of 3,000 or the
unfortunate shorty with 2,000.

Short stack

The shorty must take a few calculated risks to remain a threat. The short stack does not have much equity to protect on the six-max bubble. He is most likely to finish in third place, so he must take a few risks in order to chip up and clamber into the money. However, it is important that he picks his targets intelligently.

Doubling up through the chip leader will not burst the bubble or deliver a critical hit. Compare this with the effect of doubling through the middle stack: shorty surges up to 4,000 chips, while crucially crippling the middle stack. The benefits of taking the middle stack’s chips are greater, so he is shorty’s main target.

The chip leader’s blind may also be tougher to steal, for he has less to lose as the bulk of his chips are not at stake. As such, he may be more apt to make a loose call. However, the shorty can’t just wait for a big hand and must stay ahead of the rapidly-increasing blinds. He can consider a preflop raise-fold steal, an open-shove steal and even the occasional reshove for value. The reshove should normally be made in the event that the big stack min-raises into the middle stack’s BB, as it’s a move that will be made predominantly with garbage.

As the blinds increase, the shorty’s fold equity will diminish and so too will his skill edge. It is better to shove with a hand like 7-8s (which has 35% equity versus a calling range of 5-5+, A10+) rather than open-shoving a crappy Ace and running into a dominating hand (A-5o has under 29% equity versus the same range).

In summary, the shorty must take a few calculated risks in order to remain a threat, but don’t overvalue A-x type hands.

Middle stack

Let’s look at this from the perspective of the middle stack. He must avoid big pot confrontations as he has enormous equity to protect. Consider the following scenario: the big stack open-shoves the button and the shorty in the small blind folds. Even if the big stack is shoving any two cards in this spot, we can only call here with 6-6+, A-10o+, A-9s+ and K-Js+ due to the ICM dynamics. Versus a more likely shove-range of 50%, we may only call with 9-9+, A-Js+.

The mid-stacked player is vulnerable from both sides so needs to play carefully. Against weak-tight opponents making min-raises and continuation bets of slightly below
half-pot are the order of the day. Against aggressive opponents, Plan A is to open-shove hands such as strong Aces (A-10+) and pocket pairs as they are rarely in bad shape when called. And avoid shoving weak Aces.

While avoiding a confrontation with the big stack is preferable, we shouldn’t pass up good opportunities to re-steal. This kind of aggressive counter-attack requires great nerve and a good understanding of table dynamics. For example, if the big stack min-raises rather than open-shoves, you should question his motives as more often than not he will be on the steal.

Let’s look at a practical example where the big stack opens to 415 from the button and the short stack folds the small blind. In this situation if the big stack’s ‘fold to three-bet’ percentage is high, we can happily re-shove hands like 9-10s here. The chip leader would likely open shove the middle of his range to maximise his fold equity, so the only hands he would min-raise with are monsters hoping to induce a light reshove and poor hands hoping to take the pot down on the cheap.

As he will fold the bad hands, what we need to recognise is what hands play well against the hands he will call our shove with. Interestingly, 9-10s has 29% equity versus a range of J-J+, A-Qs+ whereas A-9o has only 25%. Although we are not looking to get our shove called, it is preferable to have a hand that performs relatively well in the event we run into a monster.

Big stack

Finally let’s look at the approach of the big stack. With a safe buffer between him and the middle stack, the chip leader can amp up the aggression, safe in the knowledge that his tournament life cannot be jeopardised in a single hand.

The middle stack, in particular, should be abused. When faced with potential elimination, a weak middle stack will collapse quicker than a granny on an icy morning. The big stack should be looking at the bubble as an opportunity to greedily accumulate chips and set up a commanding lead to take into heads-up play.

To do this the big stack has the full spectrum of moves at his disposal. He can nit up, avoid trouble and lock up a cash (a viable strategy versus two aggressive opponents), or he can crank up the pressure by relentlessly stealing from the two stacks whose tournament lives are on the line.

Another crucial consideration is the effect that a raise from the chip leader has on the rest of the table. Not only does it gain chips, but it also prevents your opponents from accumulating chips. A good chip leader paralyses the two shorter stacks by aggressively taking play away from them.

Imagine the big stack openshoving the button into the midstack’s big blind. The short stack in the small blind has to fold a lot of hands he would have open-shoved with, while the mid-stack needs an even bigger hand to call. The chip leader can therefore put further distance between himself and the other stacks by claiming the blinds before either opponent is afforded the opportunity