Short-stack dilemmas

BURST THE BUBBLE?

Your expert opinion is needed please. On our poker forum we are currently split on this poser… You are approaching the cash bubble in a $50 MTT. After the next few eliminations a minimum of $85 is yours. You have a below-average stack of $4,700 on the button. The blinds are 600/1,200 with antes of 125. The small blind has you covered, the big blind has 25k. It’s folded to you and you look down at K-J offsuit. Fold or shove? Matthew Doheny

Shoving in this situation is not a decision I would take lightly, but after weighing up all the points it’s obvious that it has to be done. With less than four times the big blind you already have close to no fold equity, and with every hand and every ante that eats into your stack it’s fast disappearing into nothing. Another reason for getting all your chips in is that this hand represents your best chance of getting heads-up. The small blind should fold unless he has a big hand, and as long as the big blind has at least a rudimentary understanding of pot odds he will call with any two cards in a flash. Even against a pair of tens it’s pretty much a coin-flip. If the big blind is crazy enough to fold then you add an extremely valuable 40% to your stack.

As for folding to get into the money, check the lobby to see who is really short – only if there are a few players on the verge of going out would I try to hang on. Ultimately you have to ask yourself whether you want to play a tournament for several hours and end up not even doubling your entry fee. I would take this gamble and give myself a better chance of making a decent return on my investment.

GET SHORTY

I managed to win a seat in the $250k guaranteed tourney on iPoker on Sunday night. I am a pretty tight player but able to make moves when I have to. In this event I was card-dead almost the whole time. I managed to double-up early when my Kings beat Queens, but that was the only good starting hand I had. I survived until there were only 185 left, with the top 150 being paid, when the following hand came up. I was in the big blind with only five more blinds left after this orbit. There were no antes to worry about. The average stack at my table was 15 big blinds. I was dealt K?-10?, the under-the-gun player flat-called and it was folded to the small blind who made it up. I could have gone all-in here but after reading the mag for so long I tend to push after the flop. The flop came 8-high with two diamonds, the small blind checked and after a quick think I bet the pot knowing I could take it down there or if raised would still have some outs. I was raised by the under-the-gun player and I obviously called. He turned over Aces, I missed my draw and went out.

When I posted this on the forum, no-one agreed with my play. About two-thirds said I should have pushed pre-flop because the under-the-gun and the small blind had shown weakness pre-flop. The others said I should have checked and folded to a bet and tried to make it to the money ($275 for 150th) then started to gamble. Just nine hands later everybody cashed. Your thoughts on this would be very welcome. Darren aka ‘Plaza Player’

I don’t think that pushing pre-flop would have been the correct play in that situation at all. In a similar vein to the first question, your fold equity is somewhat lacking, and with the under-the-gun player having already called he’s likely to call your all-in. Worse still, it could set off a chain reaction and the small blind might end up calling ‘for value’. By calling and seeing what comes on the flop, you have the chance to push the other players off the hand. The flop comes 8-high, which is pretty much perfect for that. The small blind’s check would suggest he is ready to give up, and unless the UTG limped with A-8 it’s unlikely that he would have hit the flop at all. That’s why I would have preferred to see you stick your chips in at that point. With such a ragged board, it’s very difficult for him to call you without a hand and still tricky with a hand like pocket sixes or sevens – even if he suspects you have nothing. Like you say, you still have a chance to make your flush even if you are called. By making a pot-sized bet, you give the UTG the chance to probe for weakness and put the pressure back on you – which is what he subsequently did. Needless to say, a check-fold on that flop would have been totally wrong. With the King-high flush draw and two overcards to the board all your chips were destined to go in. The fact that he had Aces is just bad luck.