Bet Sizing

One of the most discussed and debated issues in the poker world is the topic of pre-flop bet sizing. There are typically three concepts that are discussed in this debate. Some argue that you should always keep your pre-flop bets consistent so as to not give away any information on the strength of your hand. I happen to lean a bit on this side of the fence. Others including Dan Harrington and Chris ‘Jesus’ Ferguson believe in varying your bet based on position and randomness. In Harrington’s books he suggests having a standard raise but varying that amount a fixed percentage of times to keep opponents guessing. Other players advocate varying your raises based upon the strength of their hand. Which side is correct?

As is usually the case in poker, there really is no right answer. This article is going to look at each of these in more depth. From there you can make up your own mind as to which is better suited for your game.

Factors in determining your raise amount

There are several factors to consider when determining how much your opening raise should be. You first want to consider whether you are looking to take down the pot pre-flop or are more inclined to play post-flop poker. If you are the kind of player that is uncomfortable playing a lot of post-flop poker, your raise should be larger. If you are the kind of player that wants to play post-flop, your raise amount should be smaller.

The stage of the tournament is also an important consideration. The deeper the stacks, the larger your standard raise should usually be. The shallower, the smaller it can be. The reason for this is that when players have stacks that are deep in relation to the blinds they are more inclined to call raises and see flops. In the later stages of tournaments, the opposite is true. Players usually need a good reason to see a flop because the raise amount will be a more substantial percentage of their stack.

You should also look at what the standard raise for the table has been. While it’s not necessary to be a sheep and follow the flock, what other players are raising for is often a good indicator of how much you should be raising. For example, if four people have been open raising for two and a half times the big blind and have had high success with this amount, then you should probably make this your opener as well. No sense risking extra chips when you don’t have to.

Another consideration is the minimum raise amount that opponents have been folding to. The reason this is important is because it gives you an idea of the minimum raise you can make and induce your opponents to fold. It follows along with the previous factor. If you see players folding to minimum raises, then this tells you that you can make your standard raise as little, or slightly higher, than that amount. If no one is folding to two to three times the big blind raises, and you want them to fold, then you will need to increase your raise.

Similarly you should note the maximum raise amount that opponents have been calling. This is important because it allows you to establish opponents’ calling thresholds. If players are routinely calling raises of four to five times the big blind, you know that if you open-raise anywhere near that amount you are going to get called. However, if the table has shown that three times the big blind is the most they will call without a monster hand and your goal is to induce players to fold pre-flop, then you should make your raise more than this amount.

Finally you should consider the tournament buy-in. On the surface this might appear to be a unnecessary factor. After all, we’re supposed to play the same regardless of the amount of the buy-in, right? But the lower the buy-in is, the more likely people are going to play loose. The higher the buy-in, the more likely players are going to tighten up.

Key point

The standard raise gives away little or no information about the strength of your hand

The standard pre-flop bet

When I talk about a standard pre-flop bet, I’m talking about always raising the same amount whenever you are first to act. It can be anywhere from a minimum raise of two times the big blind up to five to six times the big blind.

One of the mistakes players make is to make their standard raise the same amount regardless of how their table is playing or what stage of the tournament it is. The standard raise should be able to be adjusted based on the tournament conditions. One tournament your standard might be four big blinds, the next it could be two big blinds. Early in a tournament, your standard could be three big blinds while later it is 2.25 big blinds. Take in the above factors and determine the appropriate amount to get the job done for your specific goal.

The main advantage of the standard raise is that it gives away little to no information about the strength of your hand. If you raise three times the big blind with pocket Aces and 7-2 offsuit, your opponents will never be able to figure out exactly what hand you are raising with other than your normal starting hand and positional tendencies. The disadvantage? It might make you too predictable. While you aren’t giving away any information about the strength of your hand, chances are you are only going to raise with good hands in early position and a wider range in later position. It’s important to make sure you vary the hands you raise with from all positions, but that’s a completely different topic of discussion.

The varied pre-flop bet

Chris Ferguson and Dan Harrington are probably the most noted advocates of this approach. In an article, Chris Ferguson stated that he likes to size his pre-flop raises based on his position. From early position, he raises less than he would in later position. As his position improves, he increases the size of his opening raise. For example, he would open for 2.5 times the big blind under the gun, three times the big blind from middle position, 3.5 times from later middle position, and four times the big blind from the button. His reasoning is pretty simple. From earlier position, you are more susceptible to a re-raise and should risk as few chips as possible. In later position, there are fewer people that can stand between you and the pot and you want to make the decision for them to call or re-raise you as difficult as possible.

In some ways, this is like the standard pre-flop raise in that the amount being raised is standard. The way it differs though is that the amount will vary based upon where you are sitting. The advantages are it utilises position to the maximum. If you raise in early position and are called and the flop is bad for you, your continuation bet will be smaller because you raised a smaller amount pre-flop. For example, let’s say you open to 250 with the blinds at 50/100 and get two callers creating a pot size of 800. A half pot continuation bet in this instance would be 400 chips. If you had raised to 400 pre-flop, a half pot continuation bet would have been a little more than 600. By raising this smaller amount, you save yourself chips for using later.

In later position, the raise works similarly because now you are the one with the positional advantage. If you open-raise to 400 with the blinds at 50/100 from the button and the big blind calls the pot is now 850. You might not have the best hand, but what you do have is information. Your opponent is going to have to act first. While he might check-raise, chances are he is going to let go of his hand if it missed him. Not only do you pick up the pot, but you pick up additional chips because your opponent decided to make the classic mistake of playing a raised pot out of position. Poker is about capitalising on your opponents’ mistakes.

Harrington’s method is a bit more like the pre-flop standard raise with one small twist. He believes that you should occasionally raise a fixed percentage of the time. If you normally raise three times the big blind, then you should raise less and raise more 15-20% of the time. While this method does keep opponents off balance the problem is how to determine when to raise more or less? Players have a natural tendency to vary their raise as a result of the strength of their hand. While it might seem like they are being random, the chances are their observant opponents are going to notice the difference and pick up on when it is happening.

The main problem with a varying raise amount is that it doesn’t allow for adjustments based upon the table conditions. If the blinds are 1,000/2,000 and you have 30,000 in chips and are first to act from the button, an opening raise of 8,000 is a bit much to risk. You could argue that if you don’t have a hand that you want action on, you shouldn’t play the hand in the first place. One of the major keys to tournament success is being able to pick up uncontested pots in the mid-to-late stages of a tournament. The varying raise amount will cause you to risk chips that you don’t need to risk in order to pick up a pot.

Key point

From early position there are many people left to act and you are more susceptible to a re-raise

Varying pre-flop bet based on strength of hand

I’m not going to spend a lot of time discussing this method because of all the concepts, it is the weakest and I’d argue it should never be used. Poker is an easy game when you know what your opponents have and this method basically turns your cards face up. The way this method works is that you raise a certain amount based on what cards you have. If you have Aces or Kings, you might raise two times the big blind or five times the big blind. If you have a trash hand, you would do the exact opposite (raise smaller if your big hand raise is large).

I’m going to use a real life example to illustrate the problem with this concept. I was playing in an online poker tournament and I had picked up that a player at the table would raise small with lesser hands and raise big with his monsters. I was two to his left so I was in prime position to pick up some chips from him. On one instance, he open-raised to three times the big blind from the cut-off. This was his smaller raise amount. I knew that he was weak, so I re-popped him from the small blind. He quickly folded.

A few orbits later, he open-raised from middle position to five times the big blind. This was his larger raise amount. I had pocket threes – not necessarily a hand I like calling a five times the big blind raise with but with both of us having 80 big blinds and me knowing that my opponent probably had Queens or better, I felt the implied value was there to stack him if I hit a set. The flop came 9-7-3. He led out, I raised, he pushed, I called. He had pocket Kings and I knocked him out of the tournament. The key is that he made my decision easy by telling me what hand he had. If I had pocket tens and the flop came 9-7-3, it would have been an easy fold for me because of how he raised. His play gave me the opportunity to make the fewest mistakes possible and that is bad poker.

Key point

Consider all factors and make the decision that best suits your particular style of play

How much to raise

There is no absolutely correct method of raising. The important thing is to consider all the factors and to make the decision that best suits your particular style of play. If you want to play tight-aggressive and charge people a premium to see flops with you, then raise it up big. If you are the loose-aggressive type that wants to see a lot of flops and keep people guessing whether you have a big hand or not, then raise a small amount. If you just want to keep people totally out of whack, raise a different amount every time you open.

The best players, however, raise with a specific purpose in mind. The best raise is the minimum raise to get your opponent to fold when you want them to fold and that will also induce action when you want it. Figuring out that amount will depend on the dynamics of the table at that given time. Figure that out, make the right raise, and you’ll be on your way to winning it all.