Grosvenor Poker pro Ellie Biessek explains when you have to leave the maths behind and look at the psychology behind any given action
As a mathematician, I can’t deny that maths has a very important role in poker but I get the impression that people give maths too much significance whilst underestimating another very important aspect of the game: psychology. Let me introduce you to different level thinkers to explain what I mean:
- Level 0: Players who don’t really know the rules
- Level 1: This player is consumed by what cards are in his hand. He doesn’t really think about what you and the rest of the table may have
- Level 2: The point where a player begins to start thinking about what you are likely to be holding too. Level 2 players are some of the more common players at low stakes
- Level 3: Players think about what they have, what you have, and what you think they have. They consider stack sizes, image and turn a consistent profit at low and medium stakes
- Level 4: Playing at Level 4 generally involves asking the question, ‘What does my opponent think that I think that they think I am holding?’ Sound complicated? It is. But you do not need to be operating at this level at low stakes
Now I’m going to look at players you will come across in the Grosvenor 25/25 Series and examine the most common player types in the field. Generally, they will be playing on either Level 1, 2 or 3 so we will ignore Level 0 and 4 for now.
Bluffing a Level 3 player
I min-raise from UTG with 8♦-7♦ from a 60 big blind stack and get three callers, including the BB. The flop is A-A-2 rainbow. I check, and so does everyone else. The turn is a K♦, which brings a diamond draw, and the BB leads out.
If the BB was a lower level thinker I would snap-fold my hand as it is obviously very weak and I am not looking to hit my small flush on a paired board. But after no action on the flop I have a lot of info in this hand. I know two of the callers don’t have an Ace because they would bet. I also know the BB has an Ace but he doesn’t have a good kicker as he only called preflop.
All this information was deduced not from maths but from watching my opponents. From that, I know the BB is a very good player, capable of great bluffs and big folds. He is also capable of watching how I play and knows that in this spot I will usually have A-K, A-Q or another premium holding. I raise, representing one of these big hands, and the BB calls. The river is a brick and the BB checks.
If the BB was a Level 2 thinker I would never bluff here because he would not fold an Ace. However, against this Level 3 player I move all-in as I know he is capable of folding, which he does. Later on he told me he folded an Ace. The reason I won the hand wasn’t because I played mathematically but because I played psychologically.
A lack of information
This is a hand my friend played – he found himself in a difficult spot and asked a few players for advice.
‘It’s not long into Day 2 of a tournament. Hero’s stack is 50k at 500/1000. LAG in middle position opens to 2k and the cutoff calls from a 45k stack. We are on the button with T-T and three-bet to 5.5k. The original raiser folds and the cutoff calls. The flop is 9-7-4 rainbow. The cutoff checks, we c-bet 6.2k and get check-raised to 15k.’
Many of my friends commented on the hand but lots of the advice was contradictory. In my view, it was because many people were not taking image and psychology into consideration.
This is not an easy hand, and I would need more information to make an informed decision. Imagine if the cutoff is a Level 3 thinking LAG and the hero is TAG. Many LAGs are going to rep a big hand on a low flop because you are the raiser and he is the caller. So, when a TAG raises, he normally has a big hand while the caller might easily have suited connectors or a medium pair. The LAG can easily put you on high cards – if that’s the case you should not like this flop whereas he can credibly represent a set, whether he has it or not. Now let’s imagine that the cutoff is a Level 2 thinker. Many players like that in this spot will check-raise with a set, two pair or an overpair – all of which are ahead of us.
Working out the answer
So how do we make the correct decision? Maths on its own is not enough to make a proper judgement. If you have decided to call with the Tens here because mathematically you are ahead of an average range, you are just gambling. The best decision is made when you combine maths and psychology together. You need to be mathematically ahead of your opponent’s specific range, but that range differs for different players. In the absence of any further information I would fold here as the cutoff is saying that he is winning and the hero has no information to believe he isn’t telling the truth.
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