Stack Protection

I’m playing in a fairly normal $ 1/$ 2 no-limit cash game with a restricted buy-in of $ 200. Most of the players seem to have about $ 200 and nobody seems to be that good or that bad – like I said, it’s a pretty normal day at the casino.

Two players limp in and then a player groans and flips his J-2 face up in disgust, saying ‘I’ve had this exact hand three times in a row.’ Another player limps and then the player in the cut-off raises it up to $ 75! I squeeze my cards hoping to see Aces or Kings. Instead I find A-3 and muck my cards, as does everyone else. Mr Overbet rakes in the $ 9 pot and shows pocket Jacks. He then proclaims that he had to ‘protect’ his hand. Not only does he hate Jacks but one was exposed, so he didn’t want anyone to call. He achieved that goal and unless there was a maniac at the table, nobody was going to call him unless he was crushed.

When I first started playing no-limit hold’em, I often heard players use the phrase ‘protect your hand.’ In fact, I remember playing against a lovely lady who gave me all her chips when I flopped a set of fours and she couldn’t fold K-K. Her boyfriend told her she didn’t raise enough to protect her hand. He couldn’t have been more wrong.

Gabe Thaler, who was sort of a mentor of mine, told me once that players make the mistake of trying to protect their hand rather than their chips. That statement made the game so much clearer for me. Why do I care about protecting my hand? Who cares if I have top pair or pocket Queens? I’m not taking the cards home with me. I’m not going to caress them and sing them sweet lullabies. But I am (hopefully) taking my money home with me.

Back to the first hand I spoke of – the pocket Jacks. How should he have played them? In my opinion, his Jacks are worthless. In a smaller game like this you’ll often see a lot of players go to the flop, and in a multi-way pot one pair is rarely good, especially a lowly pair of Jacks. Once I see a Jack exposed I know my hand is rarely going to improve, and not only is one pair not going to win very often, it’ll almost never win a very big pot. The value of the middle pair lies in flopping sets and making your opponents pay when they ‘overplay’ their hand. I would muck the Jacks. I’m more interested in waiting for a better opportunity to win a big pot.

Key point

Don’t put yourself in a situation where you’ll only get called when you’re beaten, especially with a lot of chips in the pot

Over Protection

If we examine the hand where the lovely lady gave me all of her chips, we’ll find that she made a mistake – just not the one her boyfriend thought she did. If anything, I think she protected her hand too much.

We were playing $ 5/$ 10 no-limit and she started the hand with $ 1,300. I had her covered. I limped in on the button with pocket fours after three other players limped. (Sometimes I’ll raise here and use my position, but because of the make-up of the table I thought there was more value in limping.) The lady raised out of the blind, making it $ 60 to go. I called, thinking she may have a big pocket pair and if I hit my flop I’d be able to make enough money to justify the call.

The pot was now $ 150 and the dealer doled out a flop of Q-8-4 with two hearts. The lady dwelled for a while and eventually bet out $ 100. I didn’t think she had it in her to bet without the goods, so at this point I figured her for Aces or maybe Kings. Either way, I didn’t want her to get scared off if a heart fell on the turn. I raised, making it $ 300 to go. Without even thinking she moved all-in. She was so scared of the flush she put herself in a situation where she’d only be called if she were beaten. I could have had an Ace-high flush draw, but I’d probably have had to fold that hand. If I had A-Q she was forcing me to fold and if I had a pair and a flush draw I’d have been right to fold that too. She’s made my decision easy, basically forcing me to play ‘correct poker’. I’ll obviously call with any set or maybe even pocket Aces, but I’ll fold pretty much every hand she’s ahead of.

Think about it. You want the inferior hands to stay in, but at the wrong price. Make it unprofitable for opponents to go for their draws. Don’t fear draws – in fact, welcome them. Just know the odds and make it a -EV play for your opponent.

Key point

You want inferior hands to stay in, but at the wrong price. Make it unprofitable for opponents to go for their draws

Making Them Pay

Let’s examine this idea further. If you put your opponent on a hand that will improve to be better than yours 25% of the time, then for him to profit on his call he’ll have to earn enough on his one win to make up for the three times he loses. For example, if the pot has $ 100 and you bet $ 40, and your opponent will win 25% of the time, he can profitably call because he’ll lose $ 40 three times, which is $ 120, but win $140 on his one win. If you bet $ 50, your opponent will break even. Win $ 150, lose $ 50 three times. In other words, calling a bet of anything more than $50 will be a -EV play for your opponent.

If you are fairly certain what your opponent might have and you know you won’t pay him off if he hits his hand, you should bet an amount that will keep him in the pot yet cause him to lose money. And when he loses money, you make money.

If you bet an amount that blows your opponent out of the pot, you are forcing him to make the right decision. Instead, why not bet $ 75. He loses $ 75 three times which is $ 225 and only makes $ 175 one time. Clearly a -EV play for him, or better yet a +EV play for you. In this example, I’m taking it for granted that you won’t pay off your opponent if he hits his draw. If your opponent has implied odds, you’ll have to adjust your betting amounts. The basic theory stays the same – bet an amount that keeps the inferior hands in the pot. Don’t fear the draw, just make it unprofitable for them.

Take another example. This time the blinds are $ 1/$ 2. You’ve won a few hands and now you’ve got $ 525 in front of you. You raise on the button with A-Q and get called in two spots (both have you covered). The pot is $ 30 and the flop comes A-10-2 with two spades. Both players check to you; how much should you bet?

Personally I like the straightforward continuation bet here. At this point you have very little information about your opponents’ holdings, except that they’ve called a raise out of position. You bet $ 20 and get called by one player. Now you can start putting him on a range of hands. He could have a weaker Ace, which means he only has three outs and will only beat you approximately 12% of the time. He could also have a flush draw, which means he has nine outs and will beat you approximately 34% of the time. He could have a combination draw: K?-Q? would give him 13 outs and you’d be in a virtual coin-flip. Or he could be slow-playing a big hand – two pair or a set.

The turn is the J?. Your opponent checks to you again. At this point, I wouldn’t put him on two pair or a set. The board is a bit scary and I don’t think he would want to give away a free card. I’d be inclined to think he’s behind, but I still couldn’t be sure whether he has a weaker Ace or a flush draw. The pot is now $ 70. If your opponent has a weaker Ace than you, he’ll only win around 6% of the time. You do not want this opponent to fold. If your opponent has a flush draw, he’ll only beat you around 18% of the time. You don’t want this opponent to fold either. I doubt that you can get a better hand to fold.

Based on this range, I’d say your opponent will beat you around 15% of the time. I’d round it up to 20% because he may have implied odds if he hits his second pair. So how much do you need to bet to make this hand unprofitable for him? He’ll win the pot one time out of five. If you bet $ 30 he’ll lose money on his call, but maybe you can get him to call more. I’d probably bet $ 35 – half the pot.

Key point

When betting, always know the odds and make it a -EV play for your opponent

Maximising Value

Of course there are other ways to play the hand. I’m not a fan of slow-playing, but I might just check here. In fact, against solid opponents I will almost always check.

If your opponent has a weaker Ace it would have to be A-9 or worse. Can you really expect a player to call three streets of value with a hand as mediocre as that? (If you think you can, by all means bet all three streets.) Most decent competition won’t call three streets with a pair of Aces, no kicker. If your opponent does have a weak Ace, you’ll probably get him to call the river by checking the turn. If your opponent has a flush draw, he might just bluff the river when he misses and you’ll get some value there. By checking the turnr, you’re giving a free card, but you’re also controlling the size of the pot with a marginal hand, just in case your opponent has a monster.

Once again, I’m not worried about protecting my hand – I want to protect my stack and the last thing I want to do is build a big pot with a marginal hand.

There’s no reason to play this game with fear. Your chips aren’t going into the pot unless you put them in and if you play well, you’ll go home with your chips and some of your opponents’ too. As for your cards, forget about them. They stay at the casino.