River Value-betting

The river is perhaps the most interesting street in no-limit hold’em, and it is also the one that most fully encapsulates the intricate metagame principles of cash poker. This is especially true in six-max games, and even more so in tough games. In this article, I will discuss the standard ideas of value-betting on the river and next issue I will expand on more high variance plays, such as bet/three-betting, check-raising and bet-folding. This article is aimed at more predictable games, mainly tight games against a mixture of TAG-fish and fish in which a more standard style will often be effective.
 
The river is different from other streets as we all know. We either think we have the best hand and are looking for value, or we think we have the worst hand and are looking to bluff. In this article, we are concerning ourselves mainly with getting full value. Getting value on the river versus one opponent can be entirely different from getting value from another. The river is where you need to take into account your opponent’s tendencies, his and your image and any history you have. Before thinking about a river plan you should almost always have assessed these factors on the turn.

Value-betting against fish

Against the most profitable player type your mantra should always be value, value, value. We should be looking to extract as much value as possible from weak-passive players, the absolute cream of the crop in six-max poker. Given that these players will generally tell you when you are beaten, hardly ever bluff-raise and almost always call your river bets light, you simply need to bet and (generally) fold if raised on the river.

You should definitely be prepared to value-bet fairly light against only two types of players: weak-passives (such as these) and very good TAGs/LAGs who are capable of making thin calls in the right spots.

Let’s look at a few examples of when you should definitely be value-betting, but a huge proportion of players miss value. Firstly, against this type of player, you should almost always know where you are and I would assume you have the betting lead most of the time. As they are weak-passives, they will try very few river bluffs and exceptionally rare river bluff-raises/bluff check-raises. Inducing bluffs from missed draws is generally going to be an inferior play to value-betting against this player type and a play we will look at more in the second part.
 
Keypoint
You should be prepared to value-bet fairly light against weak-passive players and very good TAGs and LAGs

Example 1
You raise pre-flop UTG with A-K offsuit in a $  2/$  4 no-limit game. The big blind, a loose-passive type with $  1,100 defends. Our image is fairly active/aggressive as we have position on the fish at the table. The flop is 7s-8s-Ac. He check-calls and the 2c peels. The river is the Js. He checks. We should always bet and generally fold if raised. If our image is aggressive he could easily be calling us down with any 8 and any Ace. This example is pretty standard, so let’s move on to a situation where the value is slightly thinner and more player-dependent.

First though, a note on bet sizing. As a general rule you should size your value-bets in line with what you think your fish will call. Let’s say you raise pre-flop with pocket tens and the board brings a super sexy 2-5-8 rainbow. The fish check-calls and the turn is a 2. His most likely holdings are some random 5 or an 8 or some sort of draw. Given that you really want three streets of value, don’t just mash the pot button, as big bets tend to scare fish away. Keep it smaller and keep him in. Of course there is always an argument that you will become predictable and exploitable when you start varying bet sizes, but against fish just don’t worry about it as you will almost never be read/exploited correctly.

If you flop really huge and think that your fish actually has a piece, for example they raise pre-flop, you call with 5-6 suited in position and flop A-5-6 and they lead, raise 100% of the time if you think you can get his stack in by the river. Don’t make your raises too large on the flop though, just make sure you can easily bet a third of their stack on the turn so you can get the rest in on the river without a fuss. Fish don’t like paying off overbets too often with one-pair type hands.

Keypoint
Big bets tend to scare away the fish so keep your bets at a reasonable size to keep the weak players in the hand

Example 2
It’s a $  1/$  2 no-limit cash game and a loose-passive fish has limped in the cut-off. We isolate from the button with 10s-Js. The flop comes 3s-4h-8s. The fish check-calls. The turn is the 10d. Again he check-calls. The river is the Kc. Against this opponent, value-bet the river 100% of the time and almost always fold if raised. Again this is ridiculously exploitable, but we are not concerned about being exploited by fish, who won’t ever try to.

Value-betting against TAG-fish

When true fish are not present, generally you will be seated with losing regulars. This type of player is an entirely different beast, and generally only concerned with their own hand. You won’t be able to get a huge amount of action off their marginal/weak holdings, as they will view your aggression as indicative of a big hand. This should generally lead to you barrelling scare cards more, but shutting down when they call you on Ace/King high flops. This can be altered slightly if you are almost 100% certain how strong they are.

For example, you raise their open-limp pre-flop with As-4s and the flop comes 3s-4h-Kh. They check-call you on the flop and you turn the 5s. They check-call again and the river is the 6h. If they check, you can generally bet here, as this type of player will almost always bet the river with a heart, worried you will check back a heap of hands in this spot (as they would if they had a King in your shoes).

Against this type of player you can float profitably and bloat pots profitably, putting them into uncomfortable situations wherever possible. You can also get fully paid off on your big hands. Let’s say you’re playing in a deep-stacked cash game and you make a squeeze three-bet in position only for a TAG-fish to cold four-bet you for a minimum re-raise. They are deep-stacked and have position on you. I would call with any pocket pair and try to stack him. These players have huge issues laying down overpairs, especially the ubiquitous A-A. Just don’t try anything fancy in three-bet pots, as fish have a mindset where they think big pre-flop hands mean they are getting paid and will be very reluctant to fold post-flop. This gets set in stone when it’s a three-bet pot.

Be aware that these players are almost incapable of making thinnish calls on the river, so be careful not to lose value. Let’s say they raise pre-flop UTG and lead out on a 5h-6h-Kc board. You have K-10 offsuit and call, as you have the best hand a lot of the time and can make some moves later in the hand. They then bet the 3s turn and you make a marginal call. If they check the 9s river, just check it back, as they won’t fold a King in this spot and will almost never call with worse. A double-barrel from a bad TAG means you are beaten and need a good reason to stay on.

Conclusion

Know your opponent. Know your image well and understand how they will respond to you. Work out well in advance of the river how strong your opponent’s range is likely to be, then take them to value-town, but make sure to keep the bus fare cheap enough for them to continue. Remind yourself that these types of players are normally scared of money, and so concerned with their own hand that they are ridiculously exploitable. A river check-raise from a TAG-fish means your five-high flush is no good. Above all, make sure you don’t miss value.

If you are uncertain as to whether or not you are missing value versus fish, try value-betting thinner in spots where you wouldn’t normally, purely to give yourself an insight into how much you can really extract from this player type. In addition to vastly speeding up your learning, you might make a few extra dollars.