River Thinking – Cash Games

Nelson “NxtWrldChamp” Adcock plays mid/high stakes six max NLHE but started his poker career at small stakes full-ring. He is a coach and instructor at CardRunners.

I played a hand a few weeks ago where I was faced with what would appear to be a very easy river decision, but after some thought decided against the obvious play. I was sitting in a $5/$10 6 max game on Full Tilt poker. The game was pretty good, with 1 or 2 weaker players at the table but also 3 other regulars/professionals.

Fellow CardRunners instructor John “Nicolak” Kim was on my direct right, and over the past 30 mins or so I had gotten the best of him with quite a few 3 bets, to which he either folded or if he did play back I had the best hand. I had just stacked him an orbit or two before this when I 3 bet his SB open from the BB with A3o and he flatted. The flop came 2x 4c 5c, and he check-raised my continuation bet, I called, and he jammed a blank turn with QJcc and missed on the river.

Ok so now onto the actual hand. John opens UTG to $30 and I decide to 3 bet right behind him with AxKd. We both started the hand with 100 big blinds. I don’t always 3 bet this hand in these positions but John and I had been mixing it up a lot so I thought he would play back at me more than usual. One of the weaker players behind us on the button flat calls my 3 bet, he started the hand with 55bbs so it’s going to be a little tricky when I miss the flop. Everyone else folds back to John who calls.

So we see a 9d 8h 8d flop 3 ways. John checks to me, and I decide to check as well because I really have no info on the weaker player behind me and I don’t make a habit of trying to bluff weaker players who cold call 3 bets because I expect his range to be rather strong. Something like a bunch of pairs, some big aces, and a few suited broadways. Luckily the weaker player checks and we get to see a free turn card.

The turn is the Ad, one of the best turn cards I could see. It’s very conceivable that either of my opponents could have a worse A than me, or a pair with a diamond that they are not going to fold on the turn. John again checks to me, and I decide to bet $150 into the $300 pot. The weaker player folds and John tags along.

FIVE DIAMONDS

The river is the 7d… bingo I have the nut flush, lets try to get the rest of the money in the pot right? Well not so fast. John’s calling range on the turn is probably something like AJs+, AQ with a diamond, 88, 99, TT-QQ with a diamond. So on the turn my bet is good vs that range as I’m a 70%+ favorite and making lots of money.

However that river card changes quite a bit. John is a smart player so I’m not really expecting him to call me down very light here. I think he folds hands like TT/JJ with a diamond, and any Ax hand except for the AxQd which he’s not even calling all of the time, he may even fold that hand pre flop .

If we break down his range for calling my river bet it’s going to look like 99 and 88 which are 4 combos of hands that have me beat, so I need to come up with at least 5 combos of worse hands that John can call with for a bet to be better than checking. QQ with a diamond is 3 combos and and AxQd is only 2 combos(only the AcQd, and AsQd, as the other 2 aces are dead). So, ok if John never folds the Qd or calls with worse than the Qd than I have an easy bet.
But since I’m giving John quite a bit of credit, AKA the ability to fold the T/Jhi flush almost always and even the Qhi flush some of the time, that just doesn’t leave enough hands that I beat in his range for me to profitably bet the river. And even though it is very unlikely, if John were ever to check raise bluff the river betting would be even worse.

The bottom line here is that you should not just rely on the absolute strength of your hand in many situations, but rather consider the relative strength of your hand. How does your hand fair versus your opponents likely range. Sure I have the nut flush, which is a monster absolute wise but it is not so great when my opponents calling range only includes a few worse flushes, some full houses, and four of a kind. As for the results of the hand, I went into the time bank and decided to check. John showed 88 for four of a kind and won the pot.

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