River Bluffing. Poker Player

Bluffing on the river is a tough, but potentially profitable, skill to learn

Bluffing on the river might seem like a fairly simple thing to do – at this point in a hand all the cards are out so there are no future considerations except the final betting. If you are the aggressor you should either be betting for value or as a bluff, and if you face a bet you simply need to consider your pot odds and weigh these against the possibility that your opponent is bluffing (or maybe betting a slightly worse hand for value).

However, within these options, and because in no-limit hold’em players can bet small, bet the pot, or even overbet, river play becomes much more complex. Psychology also plays an important part and the possibilities of bluff-raising and check-raise bluffing between very strong players make it an even more interesting street to consider.

Typically on the river you will face a fairly straightforward situation where you must either call a bet with a marginal hand or, when your hand is a loser, consider making a bet yourself as a bluff. If you are facing the bet it will typically be between half and full pot, giving you odds of between 2/1 and 3/1. This requires you to think back through the hand and decide whether your opponent is bluffing or value-betting a worse hand often enough to make calling profitable.

In deciding this, the tendencies of your opponent and the betting on previous streets are almost as important as the hand you have, since by the river you may be looking at a situation where two-pair doesn’t cut it or where Ace-high is likely to be winning. Consider whether your opponent is credibly representing a hand that beats you based on his actions throughout the hand. For example, a bad player will often make desperation bluffs on the river that make no sense, having continuation bet and checked the turn. A strong player would only do this against another strong player who would see it as a terrible spot to bluff and fold. Similarly, players who bet throughout a hand but do not value-bet thinly in other situations are polarising their ranges to bluffs and very strong hands. If they have a tendency to bluff or if draws have missed, you should be inclined to make marginal calls against them and not fear large bets.

Similarly, if you have a losing hand on the river you should not bluff unless you have a good read on your opponent or can represent a hand credibly. A trait of mediocre players is not knowing when to give up. Think back through the hand – your action, the cards and your dynamic with the opponent – and base your decision on that. Usually you will find yourself in good bluffing spots that develop during a hand.

Build based on the action from streets prior to the river, for example, when scare cards and overcards arrive but your draw misses, you want to evaluate the situation and your opponent’s range and consider whether a bet is profitable. If you are going to bet between half and full pot you are giving yourself odds of between 2/1 and even money, so you don’t need to get your opponent to fold so often to win. Bluffing is also very important for metagame purposes, so if you were to break even on bluffing you would be still be happy.

Key point

You should not bluff with a losing hand on the river unless you have a decent read on your opponent and you are able to represent a hand credibly

The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

Bad players (and even some good tournament players) can be awkward to play against as they often make bets based on faulty reasoning or of an unusual size. For example, they will bet a hand with showdown value but that will never get called by a worse one, or make a blocking bet with a medium-strength hand hoping not to face a larger bet. Perhaps they bet very small (or very big) as a bluff.

Against such players you will simply have to consider the information you have about them and use that to understand their logic, then act accordingly. Perhaps a bad cash game player makes a small river bet, giving you good odds, but you have to call with a lot of hands because he sometimes makes foolish bluffs whereas a good player would usually bluff bigger if a mediocre tournament player makes a blocking bet that you can move all-in because they have telegraphed their hand strength and will fold if you give them the ‘wrong’ information and raise.

Very good players present a different set of problems as their bluffs will usually be consistent with the big hands they are representing and well-timed. For this reason, playing guessing games against a strong player is a bad idea. You should try to avoid the predicament by not playing many pots against them when you’re out of position with marginal hands. However, when you do, you should rely on psychology and play history, because your opponent will often have a good read on your hand strength and will be focused on how you are likely to play. Now you may be more inclined to call down when overcards or scare cards come. If their range is wide and they are likely to use scare cards to bluff you. You may also call in spots where they know that you know their bet makes no sense.

Even more elaborate are lines that involve bluff-raising or check-raising the river, which should only be attempted against players that you have a good read on. Again, making (or calling against) these plays relies on hand ranges and pot odds, but when a disguised draw has hit check-raise bluffing is an excellent play against opponents that like to value-bet the river thinly. You should be wary of making thin bets against these players, or at least be prepared to pick them off if a good spot comes up.