Pocket power

Small pocket pairs love to see a flop and the chance of making a set

 
Consider the stack sizes at the table: how many chips you have relative to the other players and the current blind level

Small pocket pairs can be both the trickiest hands to play in no-limit hold’em and the most profitable. In this article, I’m going to discuss how to play them profitably – both before and after the flop in a no-limit hold’em tournament. I’m defining a small pair as being between 2-2 and 6-6.

Whilst some of what is discussed might also apply to the medium pairs, 7-7 to 9-9, they play sufficiently different both pre and post- flop to warrant a separate discussion.

Let’s first look at our play before the flop. On average, each player has a 6% chance of getting dealt a pocket pair. Whilst this may not sound a lot, it means you should find one every 17 hands, or roughly once every two rounds. Considered in the context of a (hopefully) long multi-table tournament, it is clear how significant they are and getting the maximum value from these hands should be a key component of your overall tournament poker strategy.

I have often read that small pairs should be played only in late position, whilst folded in early position. Unfortunately – as is always the case in poker – things are never that simple. The most important factor to consider is the relative stack sizes at the table: how many chips you have relative to both the other players and the current blind level. Let’s consider two scenarios, one in which you are opening the pot and one in which you are faced with a raise.

TO CALL OR NOT TO CALL?

Since sets are amongst the most powerful hands in hold’em and smaller sets in particular are very well disguised, I’m looking to play as many pocket pairs as possible. Our chance of flopping a set is around 7.5/1.

This is an important factor to remember at the tables and for ease of calculations can be rounded up to 8/1. Our overriding goal in poker is to make good decisions, whilst forcing our opponents to make bad ones. We know that if this is the case – over the long run – we will be winning players.

In the context of pocket pairs – armed with our knowledge of our odds of hitting the flop – we can deduce that to call a raise, we, and our opponents, must have at least eight times the original bet left in our remaining stacks. Why so? Because if we’re paying 200 to see a flop and we’re going to hit the flop only one-in-eight times, then the times that we do hit, we need to make enough money to pay for all those times that we miss.

Therefore, the deeper the stacks, the more effective playing pocket pairs becomes. If, in this example, we call the 200 when our opponent only has another 1,000 chips behind, we are making a fundamental mistake. So, we are going to make the call of any opening raise with a pocket pair when our stack sizes permit. Obviously, when doing this you are hoping to see a cheap flop (hoping no one behind you makes another raise).

Whilst it is safer to make these calls from late position (less people to act behind you), I would still normally be making this call from early or mid- position. My logic is that you are only going to get a pocket pair once every two rounds and as flopping a set can be such a goldmine, I want to give myself as many chances as possible. Obviously you may need to make some adjustments to your play depending on the other players at the table.

If you’ve got an active player behind you who likes to make a squeeze play, then you might need to reduce the amount of calling you make when this player is still to act behind you.

But even if someone does make a further raise it’s not the end of the world. In fact, it can lead to an even more attractive opportunity. For example, let’s say the under the gun player has made it 300 to play (blinds 50/100). You have called with pocket fives and so has another player behind you. Now the button has made it 1,000 to play. Let’s assume everyone in the hand started with 12,000 in chips.

The player under the gun calls and the action is on you. There is now 2,750 in the pot (including the blinds) and it costs you another 700 to call. It is very likely that once you call, the player behind you will also call as he will be getting very good odds to do so. Assuming he will call most of the time, let’s put the current pot size at 3,000 for ease of calculation.

You are getting around 4.5/1 on this call. Whilst this alone isn’t enough to warrant a call – with each opponent sitting with 11k to play with after the flop – the implied odds make this a compelling call. Bearing in mind the pre- flop action, it is very likely there will be strong action post-flop and should you hit your set, you are likely to rake in a very large pot.

KEY POINT

When you call with a small pocket pair hoping to see a flop, make sure your opponent has at least eight times his original bet left in his stack. You will only make a set one in every eight occasions, so you need to make enough money to make up for all those times that you miss

SHOULD YOU RAISE?

The second pre-flop scenario you will be faced with is when you have a pocket pair in an unopened pot. In late position I would definitely open for a standard raise. The chances are too high that you have the best hand and even if you are called, you can most likely take down the pot on any flop even if you don’t hit your set. Indeed, limping in late position with any hand, to me, is the sign of a very inexperienced player.

The real debate comes from how to open the pot with a small pair in early position. A lot of conventional theory tells you to limp in with a small pair, trying to see a cheap flop. I’m not really in agreement with this and prefer to open with a standard raise.

There are several reasons for this. Firstly, I like to take control of the pots that I am involved in. Raising pre-flop gives you the lead in the pot and allows you to represent a strong hand with which you can either win the pot uncontested pre-flop, or by following through on the flop.

Limping in allows others behind you to call with marginal hands that they would pass to a raise, but that are very likely to outdraw you after the flop.

Another advantage of raising is that it is disguising the strength of your hand should you connect with the flop. Your opponents are unlikely to spot the possibility of your set on a 7-4-2 flop whereas if you’d limped, that is exactly the type of hand most people will give you credit for: a low pocket pair/suited connector hands.

Finally, a less obvious reason to raise is that with only a 6% chance of any one player having a pocket pair, chances are you have the best hand pre-flop. It makes sound poker logic that we should be trying to get at least some money into the pot whilst this is the case.

KEY POINT

If you’re in early position with a small pocket pair, raising is a recommended tactic because you are not only representing a strong hand, but you are also taking the lead in the hand

OTHER PRE-FLOP TACTICS

Whilst we have been talking about the merits of pocket pairs when looking to flop a set against deep-stacked opponents, they do also have other uses pre-flop. Using them to both re-steal from a late position or serial raiser and to push all-in with when on the short stack are also good examples of their strength pre-flop. Again, this is due to the fact that your opponents are odds-against to be holding a pair themselves – giving you the best hand.

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