Alex Scott looks at the well-known issue of avoiding gambling in tournament poker, and asks if the theory stands up in practice
It’s the first hand of a tournament and you’re the big blind. Everybody folds around to the small blind, who pushes all-in for £10,000. As he does so, he catches his unprotected cards with his sleeve and they flip over, revealing the Ah-Ks. It’s £9,950 to call and you look down to see the Qd-Qc.
This situation is a controversial one in the poker world. In fact, it has created some of the most heated discussions I’ve ever witnessed on internet forums. One side of the fence argues that you should call, because you have the best hand and because you need to build up chips to have any chance of winning a tournament. These are the people who play to win – or so they say. The other side of the fence argues that by calling, you’re taking an unnecessary risk, and that you should fold and wait for a better opportunity.
VALUED JUDGEMENT
So who’s right? Well, as is often the case in controversial situations, the answer is somewhere in between the two extremes. Essentially, the argument revolves around expected value, or EV for short. The EV of a decision is the amount of money you would win or lose on average if you could somehow make it many times.
The starting point for the argument is in David Sklansky’s 2002 book, Tournament Poker for Advanced Players, which extended ideas he had introduced in his seminal Theory of Poker. In that book, Sklansky explains that your primary goal in a tournament is not to go broke, and this means that you should avoid close gambles for large portions of your chips when possible. Let’s examine our example and apply Sklansky’s theory.
With theQueens, you’re a 57%favourite over your opponent – that is, if you call, you can expect to win 57% of the pot on average. This works out like this: 0.57 x £20,000 = £11,400.
At the end of the hand on average, you’ll have £11,400. If you fold, you have £9,950. The difference in the EV of the two decisions is £1,450 – that is, you win £1,450 more by calling than you do by folding. Clearly, in a cash game or rebuy tournament, you should make this call.
The problem with calling is that 43%of the time, you’re out of the tournament. That means you have no further opportunities to make profitable bets and use your skill to make money. If you make just a few such calls, you’re a favourite to have been eliminated from the tournament.
The exponents of the ‘conservation’ theory argue that folding is the correct play, even though it’s the least profitable, because you can wait for a bigger edge to push in your chips later in the tournament. In technical terms, the decision with the highest EV may not be the correct decision if its variance is high.
Recently, however, more people have argued in favour of gambling in this situation. Indeed, there are many arguments for calling. The call is the more profitable alternative. On average, it adds nearly 15% to your stack – a significant profit and not to be sniffed at. You’re also a favourite to win. Many players argue that a 57-43 shot isn’t a ‘coin flip’, but is actually quite a significant edge.
The prize structure in most tournaments is so top-heavy that you can’t afford to give up any edge. If you win the pot, you’ll have a significant chip lead on your opponents that will allow you to play more aggressively and take chances to build up chips. Your chip lead will also give you a cushion with which to absorb defeats, whether they be outdraws or not, and plenty of time to wait for big hands if necessary.
However, poker is rarely this simple, and whether I would call or fold with the Queens would depend on several other factors. First, what’s the structure of the tournament? In the UK, we’re used to watching six-handed single-table heats on TV, where the first-place player moves on to the next round and the second-place finisher gets nothing. In a tournament where first place gets a substantially bigger prize than second, the only correct strategy is to gamble. To put it simply, every time you pass up a profitable opportunity, you reduce your chances of winning that prize.
Again, many of the short-handed tournaments we’re used to are crapshoots, where the stacks are short and the blinds increase very quickly so that the tournament ends before teatime. In a competition such as this, you may never find a better opportunity to push your chips to the middle and so you should call without much thought.
In a typical single-table online tournament, however, your primary goal isn’t to win, but to finish in the money as often as possible. As such, you should be more inclined to pass up marginally profitable, high-variance gambles.
BACK TO SKILL
Second, you need to asses your opponent’s skill level. Sklansky’s theory of eschewing close gambles assumes that you’re one of the best players in the tournament. If you feel that you can outmanoeuvre opponents, you should be less inclined to make a call such as this.
If I was playing in a competition at my local casino with a bunch of gamblers who treat the game like bingo, I would fold the Queens. Recently, in a tournament at a casino in Edinburgh, I was second in chips at the table with £7,775, and had reraised the second-position player’s £500 raise to £1,500 holding Ac-Ks. The player on the button – the only player who had me covered, and the only player at the table for whom I had any respect – moved all-in and the second-position player called for about £4,000. I very quickly folded, knowing I could outplay the rest of the table for the whole night if I avoided this one confrontation with the chip leader. If, however, I was playing at a Professional Poker Tour event with nine professionals, I would call.
In summary, before you shove your chips into the pot with a strong hand such as pocket Queens, consider just how likely it is that you’re risking your entire tournament on a gamble. Then consider whether you’ll have a chance to outplay your opponents later on. If not, take the gamble. However, if you’re one of the best players and there’s plenty of room left to play, you may be better off biding your time and waiting for a better spot.
