Monster flop

TERMINOLOGY
DOG – Abbreviated form of ‘underdog’, i.e. the predicted loser of a hand based on probability

KEY POINTS

• If you were the pre-flop raiser, hit a big flop and your opponent checks to you, you should almost always bet. This line of play gives a lot more credibility to your continuation bets and reduces the probability that he will suck out on you

• If your opponent bets into you, your next move will depend on your opponent’s characteristics. If he is passive, you should just call, otherwise you could lose him. If he is aggressive you may want to raise, as he may perceive you are on a bluff and attempt a re-bluff

How you play any hand after the flop depends on a few key factors, like your position, who the aggressor was before the flop, how aggressive your opponent(s) is, whether the pot is multi-way, how big your hand is, and the texture of the board.

Let’s look at how you play a big hand on an untextured flop – let’s say you are holding A♥-9♥ or 9-9 and the board flops A♠-9♦-3♣. You have a hand that is very strong and almost always good. So what is the line of play that will maximise our return on a hand like this? As always in poker, it depends on the factors above. So let’s look at this situation in different circumstances.

1. YOU ARE IN POSITION IN A HEADS-UP POT. YOU WERE THE RAISER AND YOUR OPPONENT CHECKS TO YOU

The instinct here is to check. This instinct comes from a desire to not give your opponent an opportunity to fold. But in fact, checking here is very bad on several levels. First, you raised before the flop and so the majority of hands in a heads-up pot that are checked to you, you will bet as a continuation bet on the flop. We know that the majority of hands will miss the flop (in fact this will happen about 67% of the time). So we are happy the vast majority of the time when our opponent folds when we bet on the flop.

But the key is that if you are going to make all these continuation bets post-flop, you’d better be betting when you flop a huge hand as well. This is basic game theory. If you don’t bet your big hands, your foes will know that when you bet, your hand is weak and when you check, your hand tends to be strong. That will not create profitable play. So, betting strong hands gives your continuation bets more credibility (assuming that in both cases you bet around the same amount).

The continuation bet also puts doubt in your opponent’s mind about whether or not you have a hand when you bet. Continuation bets have equity in two forms. One is the equity in the bet itself (the probability that you will win the pot right there and then), and this is bolstered by betting your strong hands. But there is also the future equity you pick up by showing a consistent willingness to bet the worst hand, which means that when you do have a good hand your opponent is more likely to pay it off.

As this is one of the main reasons for all the continuation bets you make, why would you ever check when you actually have the best hand?

BAD MOVE

Here’s a specific example to demonstrate. Let’s say your opponent has a hand like A-Q or A-J. Your opponent actually flops his hand pretty big on the A-9-3 board. He checks to be cagey and you bet half the pot ($500). This is now very hard for him to get away from and, in fact, he is likely to be check-raising here. The appropriate check-raise is somewhere around a minimum $2k, so by just betting against this hand you have encouraged your opponent to put in $2k.

Let’s consider a check here. Your opponent checks to be cagey and you check as well. Now your opponent bets on the turn, the same $500 you bet on the flop in the first line of play. What do you do now? If you call you will probably get a check from your opponent on the river.

If you raise, which is what the play would be the majority of the time, you just let your opponent know the size of your hand and any decent opponent will fold A-Q there. You let him off the hook by playing the hand so slowly. So, when you bet you are likely to pull at least $2k out of him, but when you check you are likely to pull only $500 out of him.

But wait, it gets worse. When you check you are allowing your opponent to do good maths when he would be willing to do bad maths. Let’s take that same A-Q example. Clearly your opponent is willing to at least call a bet on the flop with this hand, if not raise the pot himself. He has only three outs against your top two pair when you hold A-9 here.

That means that on the turn he will suck out on you 6% of the time – 12% if he sees the turn and the river. So let’s call him somewhere around a 9/1 dog on average. If you bet half the pot you are sending a 3/1 decision back to your opponent – that is, the pot will be laying your opponent 3/1 on his call. But your opponent is a much bigger dog than that. So when he calls he is losing money. On a $500 call he is losing right around $350.

That is a pretty sick spot for him. And if he does suck out on you, hitting the Queen, you can be assured that you made him pay dearly for that card and that, in the long run, your play was a money maker for you. If you don’t bet at all then you are offering him infinity to one. You are making him pay zero for the privilege of hitting the Queen. And that, in poker, is a disaster.

2. YOU ARE IN POSITION IN A HEADS-UP POT. YOU WERE THE RAISER AND YOUR OPPONENT BETS INTO YOU

Generally, when an opponent bets into you it is because they are weak and trying to feel you out for information. You have two choices when this happens and it depends somewhat on your opponent and his perception of you. The first choice is to flat-call and the second choice is to put in a raise. Let’s look at the first choice first, as it should be.

Unlike in the example where your opponent checks to you, your opponent’s bet has already caused him to pay something for the suckout. He has already set his price, and it is a bad one for him since you have him buried, so the issue of wanting to ensure he does bad maths doesn’t come into play here.

The bet from your opponent has in itself announced some weakness, so you know that a raise is likely to get a fold here. You certainly don’t want a fold, so flat-calling is the choice that will ensure your opponent does not go away, especially a very passive opponent who plays a relatively straightforward game. When you raise here, the passive opponent will not play back at you and you will lose him.

Now, understand that your call is scary to your opponent, and you are unlikely to get much more out of him. But the raise on the flop will pretty much always cause a fold here, so flat-calling is the more likely way to get more money out of your opponent.

If your opponent is super-aggressive and creative, you can consider a raise here. When your opponent bets out $500 here and you flat-call, you have alerted him to the fact that you have a hand, and it is often hard to get more money from him (as I said above). But if you raise, it’s an odd play with a huge hand and it may open up the possibility of him re-bluffing you.

This play only has upside against someone who thinks a raise on the flop feels bluffy. That means your opponent needs to be creative enough to be willing to raise a bet like that himself. Keep that in mind when deciding which way to go here.