Make Money From Big Hands II

Part one of Shaun Dean’s series on extracting maximum value can be found here.

Having looked at the basic techniques for extracting value in part one, this time we are going to look at some specific scenarios. Making the most money when we think we have the best hand doesn’t necessarily mean we are betting every street expecting to be called by a worse hand. Sometimes, slowing down may actually win us more money.

There’s no point in us flopping a monster, then betting for value only to see our opponent insta-fold. We have to weigh up our opponent’s range against board coordination, against our own hand and also against what our opponent thinks we may have. Then we can try to work out which line will bring us the greatest reward.
For instance, let’s say we raise from the button pre-flop with 9-9 and get called by a bad passive player in the big blind. The flop comes 5-5-9 and it’s checked to us. Our opponent’s range is big but doesn’t include too many nines or fives, as five of the eight cards are already accounted for. Betting here will only get value from some pocket pairs and everything else will be folded.
Checking back, however, gives our opponent a chance to hit something. It may also convince him that a made weak hand such as 3-3 is good. What’s more, he may sense weakness and try to bluff the turn.

We should normally be betting the turn if checked to us again, hoping that our opponent has picked up a little something and may put more money into the pot. This is a basic play that doesn’t require too much thought or planning but goes to show that bet-bet-bet is not always the optimum line to take. Sometimes slowing down will win us more money.

SCENARIO 1: BLUFF CATCHING

One scenario where checking can make us money is when we specifically want our opponent to bluff because we think it unlikely that he would call a bet with a worse hand. This works best in spots where a missed draw is our opponent’s most likely holding and we are out of position. Let’s look at a hand example:

PRE-FLOP The big blind has been playing lots of hands and seems spewy. We both have full stacks. In a $1/$2 six-max cash game we open-raise to $7 from the small blind with Ad-Js and the big blind calls (pot $14).
FLOP Jc-10c-3d. We lead out for $10 and the big blind calls (pot $34).
TURN Jc-10c-3d-5d. We lead again for $24 and the big blind calls (pot $82).
RIVER Jc-10c-3d-5d-7h. We check, the big blind bets $65, we call. The big blind shows A:-9: and we take down the $212 pot.

We were fairly sure that our top pair, top kicker hand was ahead on this draw-heavy board, so we bet the flop and turn for value. The river was fairly safe-looking and our opponent’s hand seems heavily weighted towards missed draws. We could bet here and hope to be called by worse but we are hating life if our opponent shoves and, if our ‘missed draw’ read was good and he folds, we accomplished nothing. There are still times where value betting the river is the correct play, but where we are sure that our opponent has a busted draw and will bluff, we should be checking.

Ideally, before we try and induce a bluff we will have certain criteria met. We would like it if our opponent had a history of bluffing and was fairly aggressive with made hands that would usually involve him raising the flop or turn with hands that beat ours. We would also like him to be fairly passive with his drawing hands. We would also want our opponent to have more missed draw-hand possibilities than made-hand possibilities. This often involves multi-draw boards and boards that don’t contain very high cards as it’s more likely our opponent has called pre-flop with hands that are drawing, such as A-x and K-x suited type hands.

POSSIBLE OPPONENT RANGES
1 Draws we beat

All Ac-xc: as well as other flush draws, straight draws and combo draws. These hands make up most of our opponents range. There are more than 50 possible hand combinations!
We feel our opponent has a missed draw more than 60% of the time in this scenario – betting will get no value from him and may even induce a bluff-shove that would be very difficult for us to call. Checking gives our opponent the option of bluffing at the pot.

2 Hands that beat us
We are only losing this hand a small percentage of the time. Two-pair hands aren’t very common in an un-raised post-flop pot, although hands like 10-7 and J-10 cannot be discounted. We would normally expect sets and over-pairs to have raised at some stage and the non-clubbed 8-9 hands to have folded on the turn.
If we check, we should be losing the least money against better hands as we are not giving our opponent the opportunity to raise.

3 Made hands we beat that may call a river bet
As well as K-J and Q-J, there are quite a few hands containing a 10 that we beat that may call a small river bet if asked to. Often, however, we will see tens folding after being faced with three streets of betting on a scary board. That’s not to say, though, that value-betting the river is incorrect against some opponents if we have sufficient reads and information to tell us that we will likely be called with worse.

This is not an exact science and a lot of educated guesswork is involved, but the previous example shows it’s difficult for us to get value out of betting the river, and we may sometimes even get bluffed off the best hand. By comparison, checking may induce a bluff from our opponent with over 60% of his range as well as controlling the pot size with what is, after all, only a top pair, top kicker hand. The downside to checking is the thin value missed when our opponent has a worse made hand and checks back, but this is more than compensated for by the times he attempts to bluff or checks back a better hand.
Remember, we are checking specifically because we think our opponent has a missed draw and will bluff the river if checked to.

SCENARIO 2: SPEEDING UP

On occasion, we need to bet for value on all streets. In the last example, we decided our opponent’s most likely holding was a missed draw and we checked the river. In the next similar hand, on a draw-heavy board, we can spot some subtle differences and change our play accordingly.

PRE-FLOP The big blind has been playing lots of hands and seems spewy. We both have full stacks. We open-raise to $7 in a $1/$2 six-max cash game from the short blind with Ac-Qs and get a call from the blind (pot $14).
FLOP Qc-Jc-3d. We lead out for $10 and the big blind calls (pot $34).
TURN Qc-Jc-3d-8d. We lead again for $24 and the big bind calls (pot $82).
RIVER Qc-Jc-3d-8d-7h.

POSSIBLE OPPONENT RANGES
1 Draws we beat
This time, our opponent has far fewer draws in his range. We have the Ac, so many of his likely flush draws are gone. There are also fewer open-ended straight-draw possibilities on this flop. That leaves us hands like K-10, K-9-suited, and some suited club connectors and Kc-xc type hands that are drawing.

2 Hands that beat us
These include 10-9, two-pair hands and sometimes over-pairs or sets, although, as in the previous example, we would expect our opponent to take a different line with these.

3 Made hands we beat that may call a river bet
These are all one-pair hands (K-Q, Q-10, Q-9) – a total of 24 possible combinations – and we would expect to be called most of the time. A-J, K-J, J-T, J-9, 10-10, 9-9 equate to more than 50 combinations, but we would expect to be called less frequently, depending on our bet sizing.
In this example, our opponent’s range is much more heavily weighted to a made hand rather than a draw. Here, it would be better to put in a value bet on the river and hope to be called by a worse hand – we bet $52 into $82, get called by Q-10 and win the $186 pot.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Because we are working with imperfect information, we must assess our opponent’s likely hand strength based on a range of criteria, including board texture, history, notes, table dynamics and feel. When looking for maximum value, hand reading is an important skill that should be practised whenever possible. Only with good understanding of our opponent’s range can we decide just how much money he is willing to part with, and whether he’s willing to bet or call
Even if you’re not involved with a hand, guessing opponents’ hands and ranges will improve your hand reading skills no end, making it much easier to decide whether to bet for value with your good hands or let your opponent do that for you.