Implied odds

While pot odds refer to the amount of money that is already in the pot relative to the amount you must call, implied odds pertain to the amount of money that you can win on future betting rounds, relative to the funds you must risk in the shorter term. A call that may not be justified on pot odds alone is often the right play if the implied odds are favourable.

In this month’s quiz we look at a few hands in which implied odds are a key factor in your decision-making and talk through the correct plays. The maths is not difficult – it’s simply a matter of usi ng the right thought processes.

SCENARIO 1 THE SPECULATIVE CALL

Q You’re playing in a $1/$3 no-limithold’em ring game at Treasure Island Casino in Las Vegas. A new table has just been opened, and you and seven opponents have bought in for the maximum $500. You draw the highest card and receive the button. On the first hand, the player in first position raises to $10. Ever ybody folds to you, and you look down at 3?-3?. What do you do?

A) FOLD
B) CALL
C) RAISE TO $35
D) RAISE ALL-IN FOR $500

ANALYSIS

You have a very weak hand with which to call a raise, and the pot odds, a mere 1.4/1, are not particularly attractive. If no further betting was to take place (if your opponent was all-in, for example) and you had no unusual reads on your opponent, you should probably fold. However, in this scenario there are many factors working in your favour. Both you and your opponent are relatively deep-stacked – after the flop, you will each have $490 left to bet, and the pot will only be $24 assuming the blinds don’t call. You have good position, which makes your decision- making on future streets easier. But above all, you have a hand with very good implied odds.

Let’s imagine your opponent has a hand like A-K. When the flop comes K-Q-7 you will not lose any significant money to him – it’s an easy fold. When the flop misses both you and him, you ought to about break even. He will win some pots because he has the initiative, and you’ll win some pots because you have position. However, if you hit that dream flop, K-9-3 or similar, your opponent may overplay his hand and lose his entire stack to you and your set of threes.

Sets are excellent money-making hands, particularly in small-stakes games where players tend to overvalue top pairs and similar hands to the extreme. Sets also tend to be easy hands to play after the flop, when you can often treat them like the nuts and simply concern yourself with how to extract maximum value. If you can get in cheaply and there is plenty of money left to bet, a small pocket pair is one of the best starting hands to find.

When you factor implied odds into the equation, folding becomes out of the question. But what about raising? That’s a poor choice too, because it can have no positive consequences. Your opponent might fold, in which case you’ve missed an opportunity to win his entire stack. He might call, in which case you’ve bloated the pot with a weak hand. He might raise, in which case you’ll probably have to fold because your hand is so weak.

A Calling is the best option. You’re investing $10 for a chance to win $500, or 50/1. You can’t turn down such a great opportunity.

SCENARIO 2 DRAWING ON THE FLOP

Q You’re playing $0.50/$1 no-limithold’em online. The table is nine- handed and ever yone has between $80 and $140 in chips (you have $100). Three of your opponents limp in before the flop, and you are dealt 5?-3? in the small blind. You also call, and the big blind checks. The flop comes A?-4?-7?. You check, and it’s checked around to the second limper, who bets $5. The third limper calls, and the action is back on you. The pot is $15 and there are two players to act behind you. What now?

A) FOLD
B) CALL
C) RAISE TO $20
D) RAISE ALL-IN FOR $99

ANALYSIS

Many players would call here, thinking ‘I have a straight draw, so I call.’ That’s very basic thinking, and will cost those players a lot of chips in the long term. An experienced player thinks a little differently. Here, you have a double gutshot straight draw, and have eight outs to make a straight (four deuces and four sixes). Of the 47 unknown cards, eight give you the best hand and 41 do not (assuming a 3 or 5 are not good enough to win the hand). That means you’re just over a 5/1 underdog to hit your straight on the next card, and you’re receiving just 3/1 from the pot. You should fold, right?

Well, no. The mouth-breathers came to the right decision, but not the right way. Here, implied odds are on your side in a number of ways. First, when you hit your hand it will be very well concealed. An A-4-7-6 board looks innocuous to a person betting an Ace (which they may well have limped in with), so you should collect a few dollars when you hit. If your opponent has two pair or a set, he will readily go broke on this board because the surprise value of your hand is so great. I’m sure plenty of us have watched as an opponent has turned over a straight and thought, ‘Wow, I didn’t even see the possible straight.’

This, by the way, is why flush draws are not as profitable as straight draws when the stacks are deep. Flush cards leap out from the board like warning signs, and often kill the action to the point where nobody will pay you off unless they also have a flush. A concealed draw is infinitely more powerful than an obvious one.

Secondly, several players remain in the hand who may be inclined to call or raise after you’ve made your straight. Two of them have shown some strength, and two are unknowns. Nonetheless, it’s worth taking a chance here, and you should call.

A Notice again that raising is a mistake. With fewer or tighter opponents you could make the case that raising to $20 would be an effective semi-bluff. However, in a $0.50/$1 game you won’t make anybody fold an Ace by raising, and you don’t want to reopen the betting for somebody to re-raise and force you out of the pot. Save your fancy play for another time.

SCENARIO 3 DRAWING ON THE TURN

Q Back in the $1/$3 game at Treasure Island. You have $490 in chips, and have just tipped the waitress a $5 chip for your fourth mojito. It’s folded to the player in fourth position, who is clearly a pro as he is wearing both sunglasses and a baseball cap. He raises to $10. The button calls, the small blind folds, and you call $7 more in the big blind with A?-2?. The flop comes K?-8?-9?. You check, the initial raiser bets $20, and the button folds. You call. The turn is the K?. You check, and your foe bets $55. The pot is now $126, and your opponent has over $500 left in his stack. What do you do?

A) FOLD
B) CALL
C) RAISE TO $150
D) RAISE ALL-IN FOR $460

ANALYSIS

Implied odds come in two flavours. There’s the good kind, where you make a small investment on an early street that may pay off big later in the hand. Then there are reverse implied odds, where you make a small investment on an early street that costs you your entire stack on a later one. You should consider both when making a decision.

Here, the implied odds are not as good as they might seem. Sure, the stacks are deep so you could potentially win a big pot. But the downsides are significant. If you hit your draw the board will look very dangerous, and your opponent may not call your bets because he will be scared of flush and full house possibilities.

But more importantly, you may already have the worst hand, and you could be setting yourself up to lose your entire stack on the river. If your opponent (who did call on the button after all) holds one of the several hands that makes a full house, you cannot possibly win the hand and will only be giving him a stack of your money to spend on silly poker paraphernalia.

A Your flop call was optimistic but notterrible, but calling or even raising now is a big mistake. Let this hand go.

SUMMARY

Implied odds can be used to justify a call where the pot odds alone would require a fold. However, don’t get carried away. Draw more often when your future decisions will be easy, when there is a lot of money to win, and when your hand will be well concealed. Don’t draw when you could be setting yourself up for a giant loss.