Continuation betting

We have Dan Harrington and Bill Robertie to thank for popularising the term continuation bet in their 2005 book, Harrington on Hold’em. In three short years the term has become part of common poker parlance. In simple terms, it is the maintenance of pre-flop aggression on the flop. It’s a very tough style to play against and one that enables you to win a wealth of small pots.

The continuation bet is now seen as an essential tool in any game, but it’s important to address the nuances and trickier aspects of the c-bet at stakes where your opponents will, for the most part, be fairly decent. We will examine basic c-bet strategy in a deep-stacked game and look at how to adapt to the specific weaknesses of the various types of opponent we are likely to come across.

BASIC STRATEGY

In the modern online game, c-bets are standard. Even in spots that you might think are a little out of line it is still a standard play. For a simple example, let’s assume we are playing a competent villain at $2/$4 no-limit and they raise pre-flop and we call. We have no in-depth history – they are tight-aggressive and view us as likewise. In this situation, we should be able to accurately anticipate what they will do on most flops.

If the board comes A-9-3 or K-7-2 rainbow we should fully expect him to c-bet close to 100% of his range. The reason for this is that the strength displayed by the villain pre-flop matches the high-card value of the board. Incidentally, these boards are also unlikely to have hit our ranges hard.

He knows A-J and K-Q are the only two top-pair type hands most TAG opponents will show up with here, as they will have re-raised A-K or A-Q and mucked A-10 or K-J pre-flop. A vital part of making a c-bet successful is also the small amount of hands a TAG player can call with on this sort of board. For the most part they will be forced to play very face-up on the turn, which makes them less inclined to get tricky without a hand.

We should also assume a decent villain would c-bet this if there were three players to the flop, and would also c-bet a dry Queen-high board such as Q?-7?-2? for the same reason. If the pot is four-way or more then the villain’s c-bet range will be much stronger. With so many players seeing the flop, the nature of probability means someone has a piece.

TEXTURED BOARDS
On more textured boards with some high cards we can expect our opponents to c-bet a smaller proportion of their range. For example, on a J?-9?-6? board we can fully expect them to c-bet all gutshot-with-a-pair type hands, but not hands with little chance of improvement such as 2-2 and A-5 suited.

On boards such as 5?-6?-7? they should really be cutting down their c-bet frequency, as most TAG players calling range pre-flop consists almost entirely of A-J, K-Q, medium pocket pairs and suited connectors. And this board connects with much of that range. This reveals how board texture should affect c-bet frequency.

I see a lot of multi-tabling TAG players c-betting nearly 100% of their range on 100% of boards, in or out of position, simply because they have taken the initiative to the flop. This might work against weaker opponents, but against decent villains it simply will not cut it. The dryer and more untextured a board is, the better our results from c-bets – the wetter and more draw-heavy, the worse.

For the most part, at these stakes, we want to avoid tricky multi-street bluffs. Try to keep it simple. In position we can increase our c-bet range on some boards such as Q-4-7 and J-8-3 simply because we get more information from being in position and can more effectively utilise scare cards on later streets. For example, if an Ace or King drops on the turn, and we are checked to, we should usually second-barrel as the villain’s range shouldn’t have improved.

It is hard to give advice about a solid c-betting frequency, as it is so board, image, style and table dependant. But after 100,000 hands or so a c-bet frequency of between 65-85% is fine. With a rate higher than 85%, you are probably not fully considering opponent tendencies and board texture before firing. Robotic repetitive poker is not good for improvement or win-rate. Any lower than 65% and you are not showing enough post-flop aggression. There are a few selective and highly- skilled players that do win huge with a low c-bet percentage, but trust me, you almost certainly are not one of them.

The simple truth is c-bets win you a wealth of small pots and keep your image and aggression up. But take some time to look for yourself at how hand ranges fit certain boards. Sure it might take a while but just go through different boards versus different ranges and think logically about how the betting would pan out. I promise that you will plug at least a small leak in your own game.

ADAPTING YOUR GAME

Firstly, I assume if you are playing at $1/$2 or above you are using a decent heads-up display such as PokerOffice or PokerTracker 3. Go and put c-bet and fold to c-bet percentage stats on it now. It is that important. Sometimes you don’t really see a hole in your opponents game until it is glaringly obvious. A hell of a lot of your regular TAG opponents will fold too often to c-bets.

You will adapt quicker to fish you see are almost never folding to c-bets when you see it in black and white. I don’t want these stats to detract from good c-betting strategy, but it is important to recognise your opponents natural tendencies to your c-bet.

Some bad TAGs for example, never call on the flop with 10-10 on a A-9-7 board. They either bluff-raise or fold. Some TAGs always fold. Some TAGs always call one street then try to get to showdown as cheap as possible. When you know what sort of shot you have to play you can accurately select the club with which to hit it.

Don’t double-barrel bluff the really tight ones on Ace-high boards. Don’t payoff their turn check-raises, or re-raises on the turn, with one pair holdings. Do listen to the betting and narrow down their ranges, realising good spots to double-barrel and occasionally triple-barrel. If a player starts to go after your c-bets, think logically about their ranges and how to respond.

FIGHTING THE FIGHTBACK
If opponents are bluff-raising you, then you should three-bet them on the flop. Say you have 9?-8? and open from the cut-off. The big blind views you as LAG and three-bets accordingly. A K?-8?-5? board sees him check-raise your c-bet. This is an interesting spot as the only made hands he is repping are 5-5 or K-J and far less often 8-8. Given he views you as LAG he most likely would check-call with those hands. The only draw is 6-7, which gives you the best hand and a blocker. So you correctly deduce you should raise.

Some TAGs will habitually float you. The better ones will float you on the more connected boards, such as 4?-5?-9?, while worse players will float you regardless of the board texture. Once you have established that a guy is floating you, simply check-raise more on the turn, both for value and as a bluff. This will definitely lead to some high-variance situations and tricky wars, but will stop them going after you and make you tougher to play against.

In some spots, even when you know an opponent is probably floating you, it is right to concede the pot. Lets say, for example you raised pre-flop with 9?-9?. The flop is 6?-7?-J? and you c-bet and are called. The turn is a 5?. This is a spot where if your opponent is decent you should be more than happy to relinquish. The 5 hits his calling range and you are going to get bluffed a decent proportion of the time if you bet again anyway.

ADJUSTING TO FISH
Most average players can improve significantly by adjusting c-betting against fish. For example, c-betting a J-9-6 board with 7-7 or A-K is a really bad idea. These players will regularly be out of line and will pay next to no heed about what your range should be. Representing hands won’t work.

This is a much bigger problem out of position, but in general you should start to c-bet only the top of your range, as otherwise you get into a lot of tricky spots on the turn where the answer to the problem isn’t clear. If you have A-K on a 4-9-10 board just shut down.

Normally these type of players are passive so you might get to showdown anyway but recognise the danger of that board. The major leak of loose passive players is that they play too many dominated Broadway holdings to a raise. Any sort of J-10-x board almost invariably offers them some sort of draw, which they wont be folding to a bet. Think, adjust, improve.