Badbeats and angry donkeys

This month has been an utter disaster. There, I’ve said it. At the back end of last month I was praying to the poker gods for my hands to hold up, but they decided to continue punishing me, probably for my atheist beliefs. Feeling a little sick after a bout of outdraws I was hoping that they would be curtailed by this new column, like the beginning of a new school term perhaps – you know, that bit where the teacher says the slate has been wiped clean and previous indiscretions forgotten. No such luck. I lose four straight coin-flips in a row, and then get it all-in with Kings against Eights pre-flop and Jacks against K-9 on the turn of a Nine-high board. I lose both of those as well.

What are the chances of losing those six hands in a row? Well, let’s see. The chance of losing four coin-flips (about 50% each), an overpair to underpair pre-flop (20% each) and five outs with just the river to come (12%). I’ll spare you the brain-numbing maths, but the chance is just 0.15625%, which, according to a poll I saw online, is the same likelihood of an American scientist believing in creationism over evolution. It might be the poker gods’ way of telling me I should alter my belief systems…

Tilted

I decide to ignore their warnings to change course – I was getting my money in good after all – but it did highlight one major problem: money coming in. Since giving up the day job, my cashflow is a bit irregular. Thankfully, I’ve got other revenue streams available, so I hunker down to a bit of freelance writing in order to pay the bills. This turns out to be a wise decision, as being on the wrong side of Madame Fortune at the moment sends my bankroll spinning down further, and isn’t helped by some rage-induced tilt. Weak calls and passive plays edge into my sessions.

I also lose a three-and-a-half buy-in pot to a player who shoves on the turn – with very little fold equity – holding nothing but a gutshot draw (and of course hits it). Unfortunately, it’s the catalyst for one terrible session where I make lots of bad calls (and kind of know I’m behind), and toss hands away when I probably should call.

If I’ve learnt one thing, it’s that there are a lot of terrible players out there; in future if they suck out on me, I’ve got to avoid lowering myself to their level. It’s time to focus and think about the long-term picture. Right then – new month, clean slate…