Making a living from poker is a possibility for everyone but what are the realities? We decided to see if it’s worth it

‘It’s a hard way to make an easy living’ is one of the most overused expressions in poker, falling somewhere between ‘so sick’ and ‘bad beat’ in the list of redundant phrases. Unlike the latter expressions, however, ‘it’s a hard way to make an easy living’ is usually true. No matter how good you are, the variance in poker means you’ve got far less control over your results than, say, a top chess or backgammon player, and your profits will never be entirely predictable. That said, if you’re a winning player your edge should offer you a steady return in the long run – and the more hands you play, the more the vagaries of chance should start to fade into the background.

The question is, just how much profit can you realistically expect to achieve? Even if you’re a good winning player, the amount you can make is limited by the stakes at which you play, the hours you put in and the types of games you play. Arriving at a figure is far from an exact science, but if you’re serious about poker you must have a realistic grasp of what you can expect to make both in terms of hourly rate and long-term ROI (return on investment).

Many players don’t have the faintest idea about expectation, so we’ve prepared this guide as a starting point. We’ve looked at a variety of poker disciplines, highlighting what you can expect to make at each of them if you put in the hours. For each section we’ve used appropriate figures and bankroll management for someone playing off a $ 2,000 roll, though you should be able to adapt the figures to your own circumstances. We’re not suggesting you can just magically start pulling in these figures, simply that over the long run, these are the kinds of profits winning players make. Becoming a winning player? Well, that’s up to you.

No-limit Hold’em cash games

Cash games have a reputation for being the most consistently profitable form of poker, and if you’re a high stakes shark this is certainly true. However, at lower stakes the same doesn’t necessarily hold. Let’s look at some typical figures…

What you can expect to make…
Winnings in cash games are calculated in terms of both hourly rate and PokerTracker big blinds per 100 hands (explained below), rather than in terms of ROI. On most sites you can find full-ring cash games (nine or 10-handed) and short-handed games (five or six-max). There are obviously strategic differences between the two, but the win rates for a good player are much the same. In a survey conducted on the 2+2 forums (see tinyurl.com/6s3mjt) the average win rate at both was around 10 PokerTracker big blinds per 100 hands. Note that a PokerTracker big blind (PTBB), which has become a standard measure among players, is double the actual big blind, so this is effectively 20 big blinds per 100 hands. It is widely considered that anything around seven PTBBs is a good win rate, although anything above zero is a start!

Full ring vs short-handed
Perhaps the two biggest differences between the full and short tables in terms of expectation is that the number of hands you see per hour is higher when short-handed. A look at the lobby of a popular poker site shows us that for full-ring you’ll see around 60-90 hands an hour, whereas at six-max you’re looking at 100-150 hands an hour. On the flipside it’s easier to play more tables of full-ring than six-handed. The choice is down to personal preference, but in either case bankroll management and game selection are key to sustaining a win rate. Your hourly rate in terms of dollars may increase the more tables you play (to a point), but your actual big blinds per 100 hands may go down. Finding the optimal balance between the two is key.

Advantages of cash games
You can be your own boss – a cash game starts and ends when you want it to. You’re not a slave to tournament schedules which tell you when you start and take breaks and so on. Playing poker 100 big blinds deep for long periods of time means you get used to making decisions on multiple streets, which should make you a better player.

Disadvantages of cash games
Almost everything is magnified: the swings, the bankroll requirements and the skill level of players (on the whole). All these factors make cash games a tough nut to crack and potentially not the place to try to build a bankroll.

Sample Size needed
10,000 hands will give you some idea of how you’re doing, with 30,000 hands at a particular limit being a better indicator.

Example of what you can make
A recreational player who plays four $ 0.25/$ 0.50 six-handed cash tables at a time for a total of 15 hours a week (playing 400 hands per hour) and has a win rate of 10 big blinds per 100 hands can roughly expect to make the following…

Per week: $ 300
Per month: $ 1,300
Per year: $ 15,600

Single-table tournaments

There are many types of sit-and-gos available these days, with variants such as ‘double or nothing’ and ‘matrix’ gaining popularity in recent months. It’s too early to know for sure what the expected return is in those variants, so we’ll focus instead on standard and turbo six-handed and nine/10-handed SNGs. In both of these game types, 30-33% of the field gets paid and the percentage payouts are roughly 50/30/20 for nine or ten-handed and 65/35 for six-handed.

What you can expect to make…
In sit-and-gos, the expected ROI for winning players changes depending on the stakes. As a rough guide for turbo SNGs at stakes between $ 1 and $ 30, anything between 10% and 20% is both very good and attainable and anything between 3% and 9% shows you’re beating the game but probably shouldn’t move up limits just yet. For example, our resident SNG expert Jennifear is running at about 15% ROI over 2,000 sit-and-gos at an average buy-in of $ 18 on both PokerStars and Full Tilt. At the $ 30 level and above, anything between 4% and 10% is good. For example, top turbo SNG player phatchoy888, who is number two on the SharkScope leaderboard for $ 301-$ 1,000 full-ring sit-and-gos, is running at 4% ROI over 11,000 games.

Turbo vs standard
In standard SNGs you can generally expect a slightly higher ROI percentage than in turbos. However, what you gain in ROI on each sit-and-go you tend to lose in terms of hourly rate, as each game takes considerably longer. It is down to personal preference as to which you prefer, but most ‘career’ sit-and-go players prefer turbos and play anywhere from six to 18 tables at a time, knowing that playing more tables will increase their hourly rate and ultimately their profits. To know if you’re on the right track you can obviously keep track of your bottom line as well as using a tracking site like SharkScope.com. Keep an eye on your ‘in the money’ percentage – anything around 37-40% is excellent – and also look at your ratio of first, second and third-place finishes.

Advantages of sit-and-gos
With practice you can play many tables at once, which is good for any rakeback or player points deals you’re on. The high percentage of the field that is paid out means variance is lower but so is your maximum ROI. Turbos typically last around 45 minutes, meaning they can fit into even the most hectic of schedules.

Disadvantages of sit-and-gos
Some say that sit-and-gos aren’t real poker and that they’re a solved game. Break-even stretches can be long, and multi-tabling day-in, day-out can become tedious as most decisions are automatic. Also, with low risk comes low reward.

Sample size needed
1,000+ games

Example of what you can make
We estimate that a nine-handed turbo SNG takes around 45 minutes. A recreational player who plays four $ 30 + $ 3 nine-handed turbos at a time for 15 hours a week and attains an ROI of 10% can expect to average the following…

Per week: $ 265
Per month: $ 1,200
Per year: $ 13,750

Multi-table tournaments

Tournaments are without doubt the most popular format of poker, due in no small part to the amount of coverage they get in comparison to other formats. They’re where the glory resides in the poker world. However, the saying ‘cash for dough, tourneys for show’ is not spurious. While tournaments are a great way to win the big bucks in a few hours, there’s also a lot of fallow periods in between.

What you can expect to make…
The size of the field in a tournament is a very important factor. A general rule is that the larger the field the more extreme the variance, though obviously the structure and standard of competition also play a part. The top online tournament player in the UK according to the Pocket Fives rankings is Chris ‘Moorman1’ Moorman. If you take a look at his PokerStars statistics (using Official Poker Rankings), you can see that over 3,301 tournaments his longest non-cashing streak is 34 and his in-the-money percentage is 16.36%. Within that, he has 118 final tables to his name and 15 wins.

Low vs high stakes
We also took a look at Bluntman, one of the top-ranked players for $ 1-$ 10 MTTs, and his stats were much the same as Moorman’s. Over 10,628 tournaments he was in the money 16.63% of the time, with a longest non-cashing streak of 51 tourneys. Moorman’s ROI on PokerStars according to Official Poker Rankings is 37% and Bluntman’s is 17%.

Shaun Deeb, who won the PokerStars tournament leaderboard in 2007 and sits atop it again in 2008 (thanks in part to his ability to play long hours and many tables at once), has a lifetime ROI of 62% and internet legend JohnnyBax’s is 88%. None of these players has an in-the-money percentage of above 17. All this should show you that tournament cashes do not happen every day and that playing to win – or at least making the top three where the majority of the prize pool is found – is your priority.

Advantages of Multi-table tourneys
You can win a large sum of money for a minimal outlay – every Sunday there are a number of $ 100,000-plus first-place prizes for an outlay of around $ 215, or even less if you satellite in. And nothing quite beats that rush of going deep in a tournament.

Disadvantages of Multi-table tourneys
You need to be made of stern stuff and have a bankroll to withstand the swings that come with the territory; anywhere between 100 and 200 buy-ins are recommended. Also, tournaments can drag on, taking many hours to complete.

Sample Size needed
At least 1,000, but it is reckoned that 2,500 or more will give you a concrete sample size.

Example of what you can make
A recreational player who plays an average of four tournaments every night with an average buy-in of $ 20 and an ROI of 30% can expect to make roughly the following…

Per week: $ 170
Per month: $ 750
Per year: $ 8,750

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